PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2026

FC Utrecht vs Willem II Tilburg · Eredivisie

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.830.86
Expected goals
1.541.28
Shots
11.711.9
Possession
43.8%38.7%

30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: FC Utrecht's home-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

FC Utrecht have a visible home split

weak

FC Utrecht's home-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.33 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.33 shots/match11.7 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Utrecht favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Willem II Tilburg in 1 · 5 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Utrecht6 matchesWillem II Tilburg7 matches
1.83 goals/match ▲Goals scored6/70.86 goals/match
3.17 goals/matchGoals allowed6/7▲ 2.86 goals/match
1.54 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/71.28 xG/match
11.7 shots/matchShots6/711.9 shots/match
4.33 shots/match ▲Shots on target6/72.71 shots/match
43.8% ●Possession6/738.7%
3.33 corners/matchCorners6/7● 4 corners/match
16.3 fouls/matchFouls6/79 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2FC Utrecht
0Draws
1Willem II Tilburg
Willem II Tilburg — FC Utrecht · Eredivisie2–3
FC Utrecht — Willem II Tilburg · Eredivisie3–2
Willem II Tilburg — FC Utrecht · Eredivisie3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness28 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 10:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC UtrechtWillem II Tilburg
CompetitionEredivisie
Head-to-headFC Utrecht — Willem II Tilburg
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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