PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2026

FC Utrecht 3–1 Willem II Tilburg · Eredivisie

3–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

FC Utrecht won 3–1.

Shots
249
Shots on target
62
Expected goals
1.30.61
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Utrecht beat Willem II Tilburg 3–1. Recorded in this match (FC Utrecht – Willem II Tilburg): shots 24–9, shots on target 6–2, expected goals 1.3–0.61, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Willem II Tilburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Willem II Tilburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.88 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.88 goals/match1.75 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots24 shots9 shotsFC Utrecht 24 shots, Willem II Tilburg 9 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots2 shotsFC Utrecht 6 shots, Willem II Tilburg 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.3 xG0.61 xGFC Utrecht 1.3 xG, Willem II Tilburg 0.61 xG
  • Possession58%42%FC Utrecht 58%, Willem II Tilburg 42%
  • Corners7 corners3 cornersFC Utrecht 7 corners, Willem II Tilburg 3 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls13 foulsFC Utrecht 15 fouls, Willem II Tilburg 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards0 cardsFC Utrecht 2 cards, Willem II Tilburg 0 cards
  • Passes483 passes351 passesFC Utrecht 483 passes, Willem II Tilburg 351 passes
  • Pass accuracy86.1%79.2%FC Utrecht 86.1%, Willem II Tilburg 79.2%
  • Shots inside box19 shots7 shotsFC Utrecht 19 shots, Willem II Tilburg 7 shots
  • Blocked shots8 blocks2 blocksFC Utrecht 8 blocks, Willem II Tilburg 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save3 savesFC Utrecht 1 save, Willem II Tilburg 3 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides2 offsidesFC Utrecht 0 offsides, Willem II Tilburg 2 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Marius Broholm · FC Utrecht · 57′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJoris van Overeem · FC Utrecht · 8′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarius Broholm · FC Utrecht · 12′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarius Broholm · FC Utrecht · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarius Broholm · FC Utrecht · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSiebe Horemans · FC Utrecht · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYoann Cathline · FC Utrecht · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYoann Cathline · FC Utrecht · 75′ · 0.02 xG · goalÁngel Alarcón · FC Utrecht · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetÁngel Alarcón · FC Utrecht · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSiebe Horemans · FC Utrecht · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedArthur Zagre · FC Utrecht · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDani De Wit · FC Utrecht · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTonny Vilhena · Willem II Tilburg · 10′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHidde ter Avest · Willem II Tilburg · 42′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedThomas Verheydt · Willem II Tilburg · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJaden Slory · Willem II Tilburg · 60′ · 0.04 xG · goalDani De Wit · FC Utrecht · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYoann Cathline · FC Utrecht · 68′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedYoann Cathline · FC Utrecht · 38′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYoann Cathline · FC Utrecht · 53′ · 0.06 xG · goalÁngel Alarcón · FC Utrecht · 84′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedArthur Zagre · FC Utrecht · 12′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedArthur Zagre · FC Utrecht · 20′ · 0.06 xG · on targetEser Gürbüz · Willem II Tilburg · 86′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedYoann Cathline · FC Utrecht · 41′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDevin Haen · Willem II Tilburg · 81′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDani De Wit · FC Utrecht · 20′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDevin Haen · Willem II Tilburg · 31′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMaxim Dekker · Willem II Tilburg · 90′ · 0.10 xG · on targetDevin Haen · Willem II Tilburg · 12′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedÁngel Alarcón · FC Utrecht · 90′ · 0.15 xG · goalMatisse Didden · FC Utrecht · 39′ · 0.31 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Utrecht: 24 shots, 6 on target, 1.30 xG. Willem II Tilburg: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.60 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Yoann Cathline · FC Utrecht · 53′Yoann Cathline · FC Utrecht · 75′Ángel Alarcón · FC Utrecht · 90′Jaden Slory · Willem II Tilburg · 60′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Utrecht 1.30 xG · Willem II Tilburg 0.60 xG.

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

FC Utrecht
  1. Vasilis BarkasG
  2. Siebe HoremansD
  3. Matisse DiddenD
  4. Nikolas PanagiotouD
  5. Joris van OvereemD
  6. Niklas VesterlundD
  7. Dani De WitM
  8. Oualid AgougilM
  9. Yoann CathlineF
  10. Marius BroholmF
  11. Arthur ZagreF
Willem II Tilburg
  1. Maxime DelangheG
  2. Finn StamD
  3. Hidde ter AvestD
  4. Maxim DekkerD
  5. Nathan Tjoe-A-OnD
  6. Calvin TwigtM
  7. Vito van CrooijM
  8. Tonny VilhenaM
  9. Jaden SloryF
  10. Devin HaenF
  11. Uriel van AalstF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2FC Utrecht
0Draws
1Willem II Tilburg
Willem II Tilburg — FC Utrecht · Eredivisie2–3
FC Utrecht — Willem II Tilburg · Eredivisie3–2
Willem II Tilburg — FC Utrecht · Eredivisie3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Utrecht favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Willem II Tilburg in 1 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Utrecht8 matchesWillem II Tilburg8 matches
1.75 goals/match ▲Goals scored8/80.88 goals/match
3.13 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 2.88 goals/match
1.39 xG/match ▲Expected goals8/81.2 xG/match
12.5 shots/match ▲Shots8/811.5 shots/match
4.25 shots/match ▲Shots on target8/82.63 shots/match
45.5% ●Possession8/839.1%
3.75 corners/matchCorners8/8● 3.88 corners/match
17 fouls/matchFouls8/89.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC UtrechtWillem II Tilburg
CompetitionEredivisie
Head-to-headFC Utrecht — Willem II Tilburg
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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