PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2026

PEC Zwolle 0–1 SC Cambuur · Eredivisie

0–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

SC Cambuur won 0–1.

Shots
1513
Shots on target
64
Expected goals
0.980.82
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

SC Cambuur beat PEC Zwolle 1–0. Recorded in this match (PEC Zwolle – SC Cambuur): shots 15–13, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 0.98–0.82, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

PEC Zwolle's recent record differs from the season

weak

PEC Zwolle's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.75 goals/match1.75 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

PEC Zwolle have a visible home split

weak

PEC Zwolle's home-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.25 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.25 shots/match11.1 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

11.9 fouls/matchFoulsPEC Zwolle · SC Cambuur12.5 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricPEC ZwolleSC CambuurBaseline
Fouls11.9 fouls/match12.5 fouls/match10.3 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots13 shotsPEC Zwolle 15 shots, SC Cambuur 13 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shotsPEC Zwolle 6 shots, SC Cambuur 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.98 xG0.82 xGPEC Zwolle 0.98 xG, SC Cambuur 0.82 xG
  • Possession46%54%PEC Zwolle 46%, SC Cambuur 54%
  • Corners5 corners5 cornersPEC Zwolle 5 corners, SC Cambuur 5 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls15 foulsPEC Zwolle 16 fouls, SC Cambuur 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards3 cardsPEC Zwolle 3 cards, SC Cambuur 3 cards
  • Passes359 passes432 passesPEC Zwolle 359 passes, SC Cambuur 432 passes
  • Pass accuracy73%79.9%PEC Zwolle 73%, SC Cambuur 79.9%
  • Shots inside box11 shots11 shotsPEC Zwolle 11 shots, SC Cambuur 11 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks3 blocksPEC Zwolle 4 blocks, SC Cambuur 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves6 savesPEC Zwolle 3 saves, SC Cambuur 6 saves
  • Offsides1 offside4 offsidesPEC Zwolle 1 offside, SC Cambuur 4 offsides

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Gilles van der Wal · PEC Zwolle · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSimon Graves · PEC Zwolle · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJason Ceka · SC Cambuur · 83′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIsmaël Baouf · SC Cambuur · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRafik El Arguioui · SC Cambuur · 73′ · 0.03 xG · on targetIbrahim Cissoko · PEC Zwolle · 2′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRyan Thomas · PEC Zwolle · 75′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRafik El Arguioui · SC Cambuur · 43′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Cissoko · PEC Zwolle · 47′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJason Ceka · SC Cambuur · 66′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRafik El Arguioui · SC Cambuur · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedThijs Oosting · PEC Zwolle · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSydney van Hooijdonk · PEC Zwolle · 75′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIlyes Hamache · SC Cambuur · 46′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKoen Kostons · PEC Zwolle · 35′ · 0.06 xG · on targetIbrahim Cissoko · PEC Zwolle · 28′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKoen Kostons · PEC Zwolle · 55′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRafik El Arguioui · SC Cambuur · 59′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMathieu Maertens · SC Cambuur · 59′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDylan Mbayo · PEC Zwolle · 31′ · 0.07 xG · on targetNicolas Binder · SC Cambuur · 58′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKoen Kostons · PEC Zwolle · 6′ · 0.08 xG · on targetJason Ceka · SC Cambuur · 77′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedThijs Oosting · PEC Zwolle · 14′ · 0.11 xG · on targetKoen Kostons · PEC Zwolle · 34′ · 0.12 xG · on targetRafik El Arguioui · SC Cambuur · 59′ · 0.14 xG · on targetNicolas Binder · SC Cambuur · 83′ · 0.15 xG · goalElias Sørensen · PEC Zwolle · 65′ · 0.20 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

PEC Zwolle: 15 shots, 6 on target, 0.99 xG. SC Cambuur: 13 shots, 4 on target, 0.84 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Nicolas Binder · SC Cambuur · 83′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: PEC Zwolle 0.99 xG · SC Cambuur 0.84 xG.

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

PEC Zwolle
  1. Jasper SchendelaarG
  2. Sherel Constancio FloranusD
  3. Olivier AertssenD
  4. Nick ViergeverD
  5. Simon GravesD
  6. Tobias SommerM
  7. Dylan MbayoM
  8. Ibrahim CissokoM
  9. Thijs OostingM
  10. Ryan ThomasM
  11. Koen KostonsF
SC Cambuur
  1. Thijs JansenG
  2. Devid BouahD
  3. Ismaël BaoufD
  4. Billy van DuijlD
  5. Morgan CostarelliD
  6. Nicky SourenM
  7. Rafik El ArguiouiM
  8. Ethan ApkakouM
  9. Ilyes HamacheF
  10. Fabian KvamF
  11. Mathieu MaertensF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1PEC Zwolle
0Draws
1SC Cambuur
SC Cambuur — PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie3–4
PEC Zwolle — SC Cambuur · Eredivisie1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: PEC Zwolle favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · SC Cambuur in 11 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

PEC Zwolle8 matchesSC Cambuur8 matches
0.75 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 1.38 goals/match
2.63 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 2.38 goals/match
0.92 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 1.29 xG/match
11.1 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 12 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 4.25 shots/match
40.8%Possession8/8● 47.3%
4.25 corners/match ●Corners8/83.88 corners/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls8/812.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPEC ZwolleSC Cambuur
CompetitionEredivisie
Head-to-headPEC Zwolle — SC Cambuur
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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