PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2026

Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II Tilburg · Eredivisie

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.671
Expected goals
1.81.33
Shots
13.511.3
Possession
45.2%37.3%

30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: sparta Rotterdam's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Sparta Rotterdam's recent record differs from the season

weak

Sparta Rotterdam's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.67 goals/match1.92 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Sparta Rotterdam favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Willem II Tilburg in 0 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Sparta Rotterdam6 matchesWillem II Tilburg6 matches
1.67 goals/match ▲Goals scored6/61 goal/match
2.17 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/63.17 goals/match
1.8 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/61.33 xG/match
13.5 shots/match ▲Shots6/611.3 shots/match
5 shots/match ▲Shots on target6/62.67 shots/match
45.2% ●Possession6/637.3%
6.5 corners/match ●Corners6/63.83 corners/match
10 fouls/matchFouls6/69 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

5Sparta Rotterdam
0Draws
0Willem II Tilburg
Willem II Tilburg — Sparta Rotterdam · KNVB Beker1–5
Sparta Rotterdam — Willem II Tilburg · Eredivisie4–0
Willem II Tilburg — Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie1–2
Sparta Rotterdam — Willem II Tilburg · Eredivisie1–0
Willem II Tilburg — Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness34 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSparta RotterdamWillem II Tilburg
CompetitionEredivisie
Head-to-headSparta Rotterdam — Willem II Tilburg
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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