PitchMath
Premier League · 2026

Akhmat Grozny vs Baltika Kaliningrad · Premier League

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.441.56
Shots
12.712.9
Possession
47.2%39.9%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: akhmat Grozny's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Alongside it: baltika Kaliningrad's away-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Akhmat Grozny's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Akhmat Grozny's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.44 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.44 goals/match1.44 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Baltika Kaliningrad have a visible away split

weak

Baltika Kaliningrad's away-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.3 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.3 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Akhmat Grozny favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Baltika Kaliningrad in 7 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Akhmat Grozny9 matchesBaltika Kaliningrad9 matches
1.44 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲ 1.56 goals/match
1.44 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲ 1.33 goals/match
12.7 shots/matchShots9/912.9 shots/match
4.11 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲ 4.56 shots/match
47.2% ●Possession9/939.9%
4.56 corners/matchCorners9/9● 5.22 corners/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls9/915.4 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Akhmat Grozny
1Draws
3Baltika Kaliningrad
Akhmat Grozny — Baltika Kaliningrad · Premier League1–1
Baltika Kaliningrad — Akhmat Grozny · Premier League2–0
Akhmat Grozny — Baltika Kaliningrad · Premier League1–7
Baltika Kaliningrad — Akhmat Grozny · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness25 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against, cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingShots per match rankingShots on target per match ranking
TeamsAkhmat GroznyBaltika Kaliningrad
CompetitionPremier League
Head-to-headAkhmat Grozny — Baltika Kaliningrad
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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