PitchMath
Premier League · 2026

Baltika Kaliningrad vs FC Rostov · Premier League

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.561.11
Shots
12.914
Possession
39.9%46.3%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: FC Rostov's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

FC Rostov's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Rostov's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.11 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.11 goals/match1.44 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Baltika Kaliningrad favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · FC Rostov in 3 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Baltika Kaliningrad9 matchesFC Rostov9 matches
1.56 goals/match ▲Goals scored9/91.11 goals/match
1.33 goals/match ▲Goals allowed9/91.89 goals/match
12.9 shots/matchShots9/9▲ 14 shots/match
4.56 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲ 5 shots/match
39.9%Possession9/9● 46.3%
5.22 corners/match ●Corners9/94.67 corners/match
15.4 fouls/matchFouls9/915.2 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Baltika Kaliningrad
3Draws
1FC Rostov
FC Rostov — Baltika Kaliningrad · Premier League1–1
Baltika Kaliningrad — FC Rostov · Premier League0–0
FC Rostov — Baltika Kaliningrad · Premier League2–1
Baltika Kaliningrad — FC Rostov · Premier League2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness32 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against, cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 17:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingShots per match rankingShots on target per match ranking
TeamsBaltika KaliningradFC Rostov
CompetitionPremier League
Head-to-headBaltika Kaliningrad — FC Rostov
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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