PitchMath
Premier League · 2026

FK Krasnodar vs Baltika Kaliningrad · Premier League

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.61.4
Shots
15.212.6
Possession
58.2%40.6%

30-second read

What the record shows

One pattern stands out in the record: FK Krasnodar have recorded the higher season possession share. The next-strongest reading is weaker: FK Krasnodar's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

FK Krasnodar's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FK Krasnodar's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.6 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.6 goals/match1.35 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

FK Krasnodar have recorded the higher season possession share.

58.2% ●PossessionFK Krasnodar · Baltika Kaliningrad40.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFK KrasnodarBaltika KaliningradBaseline
Possession58.2%40.6%47.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FK Krasnodar favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Baltika Kaliningrad in 1 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FK Krasnodar10 matchesBaltika Kaliningrad10 matches
1.6 goals/match ▲Goals scored10/101.4 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed10/101.2 goals/match
15.2 shots/match ▲Shots10/1012.6 shots/match
4.9 shots/match ▲Shots on target10/104.4 shots/match
58.2% ●Possession10/1040.6%
4.2 corners/matchCorners10/10● 5 corners/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1016.5 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1FK Krasnodar
3Draws
0Baltika Kaliningrad
FK Krasnodar — Baltika Kaliningrad · Premier League2–2
Baltika Kaliningrad — FK Krasnodar · Premier League1–1
FK Krasnodar — Baltika Kaliningrad · Premier League3–2
Baltika Kaliningrad — FK Krasnodar · Premier League2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness14 daysfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against, cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingShots per match rankingShots on target per match ranking
TeamsFK KrasnodarBaltika Kaliningrad
CompetitionPremier League
Head-to-headFK Krasnodar — Baltika Kaliningrad
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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