PitchMath
League One · 2026

Leicester City 1–3 Peterborough United · League One

1–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Peterborough United won 1–3.

Shots
2013
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
2.431.52
Possession
70%30%

Full time

What the match recorded

Peterborough United beat Leicester City 3–1. Recorded in this match (Leicester City – Peterborough United): shots 20–13, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 2.43–1.52, possession 70%–30%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Peterborough United's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Peterborough United's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.78 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.78 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Leicester City show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Leicester City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.1 shots/match ▲ShotsLeicester City · Peterborough United13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLeicester CityPeterborough UnitedBaseline
Shots16.1 shots/match13.6 shots/match13.5 shots/match
Shots against13 shots/match13.9 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Leicester City have recorded the higher season possession share.

68.4% ●PossessionLeicester City · Peterborough United55.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLeicester CityPeterborough UnitedBaseline
Possession68.4%55.8%49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots13 shotsLeicester City 20 shots, Peterborough United 13 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shotsLeicester City 4 shots, Peterborough United 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.43 xG1.52 xGLeicester City 2.43 xG, Peterborough United 1.52 xG
  • Possession70%30%Leicester City 70%, Peterborough United 30%
  • Corners8 corners8 cornersLeicester City 8 corners, Peterborough United 8 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls14 foulsLeicester City 11 fouls, Peterborough United 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards1 cardLeicester City 0 cards, Peterborough United 1 card
  • Passes645 passes262 passesLeicester City 645 passes, Peterborough United 262 passes
  • Pass accuracy82.3%59.5%Leicester City 82.3%, Peterborough United 59.5%
  • Shots inside box18 shots10 shotsLeicester City 18 shots, Peterborough United 10 shots
  • Blocked shots7 blocks5 blocksLeicester City 7 blocks, Peterborough United 5 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves3 savesLeicester City 2 saves, Peterborough United 3 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides3 offsidesLeicester City 3 offsides, Peterborough United 3 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 12′Owura EdwardsGoal · Peterborough United
  2. 36′Harry LeonardGoal · Peterborough United
  3. 44′Warren O'HoraGoal · Leicester City
  4. Half-time
  5. 68′Emil Riis JacobsenGoal · Leicester City
  6. 85′Matthew GarbettYellow card · Peterborough United
  7. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Leicester City · 3 player changesWes Burns · Kamari Doyle · Ilari Kangasniemi
  • 59′Peterborough United · 1 player changeMatthew Garbett
  • 65′Leicester City · 1 player changeSammy Braybrooke
  • 67′Peterborough United · 2 player changesVernon Masara · Benjamin Woods
  • 78′Leicester City · 1 player changeHarry Howell
  • 78′Peterborough United · 2 player changesDanny Ormerod · Brandon Khela

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Leicester City4-1-4-1
  1. Alex McCarthyG
  2. Caleb OkoliD
  3. Warren O'HoraD
  4. Olabade AlukoD
  5. Luke ThomasD
  6. John LundstramM
  7. Liam CullenM
  8. Bobby De Cordova-ReidM
  9. Louis PageM
  10. William AlvesM
  11. Emil Riis JacobsenF

Substitutes

  • Franco Ravizzoli
  • Harry Souttar
  • Ilari Kangasniemi
  • Kamari Doyle
  • Sammy Braybrooke
  • Wes Burns
  • Harry Howell
Peterborough United4-2-3-1
  1. Alex BassG
  2. Carl JohnstonD
  3. Josh FeeneyD
  4. Harley MillsD
  5. Lucca MendonçaD
  6. Liam KellyM
  7. Ethan WilliamsM
  8. Harry AshfieldM
  9. Harry LeonardF
  10. Owura EdwardsF
  11. Bolu ShofowokeF

Substitutes

  • Collin Andeng-Ndi
  • David Okagbue
  • Brandon Khela
  • Benjamin Woods
  • Matthew Garbett
  • Vernon Masara
  • Danny Ormerod

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Leicester City favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Peterborough United in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Leicester City8 matchesPeterborough United9 matches
1.25 goals/match ▲Goals scored8/90.78 goals/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed8/9▲ 1.56 goals/match
1.51 xG/match ▲Expected goals8/81.43 xG/match
16.1 shots/match ▲Shots8/813.6 shots/match
4.88 shots/match ▲Shots on target8/82.88 shots/match
68.4% ●Possession8/855.8%
6.88 corners/match ●Corners8/85.75 corners/match
9.88 fouls/matchFouls8/810 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in League One

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLeicester CityPeterborough United
CompetitionLeague One
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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