PitchMath
League One · 2026

Milton Keynes Dons 1–5 Reading · League One

1–5Full-time analysis

Reading

WLWDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Reading won 1–5.

Shots
1113
Shots on target
46
Expected goals
0.773.64
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

Reading beat Milton Keynes Dons 5–1. Recorded in this match (Milton Keynes Dons – Reading): shots 11–13, shots on target 4–6, expected goals 0.77–3.64, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Reading show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Reading's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14 shots/match ▲ShotsMilton Keynes Dons · Reading16 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMilton Keynes DonsReadingBaseline
Shots14 shots/match16 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against15.9 shots/match10.3 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Milton Keynes Dons have a visible home split

weak

Milton Keynes Dons's home-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.8 shots/match14 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots13 shotsMilton Keynes Dons 11 shots, Reading 13 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots6 shotsMilton Keynes Dons 4 shots, Reading 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.77 xG3.64 xGMilton Keynes Dons 0.77 xG, Reading 3.64 xG
  • Possession55%45%Milton Keynes Dons 55%, Reading 45%
  • Corners2 corners5 cornersMilton Keynes Dons 2 corners, Reading 5 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls7 foulsMilton Keynes Dons 13 fouls, Reading 7 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardMilton Keynes Dons 1 card, Reading 1 card
  • Passes408 passes333 passesMilton Keynes Dons 408 passes, Reading 333 passes
  • Pass accuracy75.5%70.9%Milton Keynes Dons 75.5%, Reading 70.9%
  • Shots inside box5 shots10 shotsMilton Keynes Dons 5 shots, Reading 10 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks3 blocksMilton Keynes Dons 4 blocks, Reading 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save3 savesMilton Keynes Dons 1 save, Reading 3 saves
  • Offsides1 offside7 offsidesMilton Keynes Dons 1 offside, Reading 7 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 28′Haydon RobertsYellow card · Reading
  2. 38′Paddy LaneGoal · Reading
  3. Half-time
  4. 47′Cohen BramallGoal · Milton Keynes Dons
  5. 64′Kyreece LisbieGoal · Reading
  6. 73′Marvin EkpitetaYellow card · Milton Keynes Dons
  7. 80′Kyreece LisbieGoal · Reading
  8. 85′Aaron CollinsGoal · Milton Keynes Dons
  9. 87′Jacob BrownGoal · Reading
  10. Full time
Player changes · 8grouped by team and minute
  • 55′Milton Keynes Dons · 2 player changesAlex Gilbey · Ibrahim Fullah
  • 81′Reading · 1 player changeJacob Brown
  • 82′Milton Keynes Dons · 2 player changesJack Sanders · Samuel Silvera
  • 86′Reading · 2 player changesRandell Williams · Daniel Kyerewaa
  • 90′Reading · 1 player changeLiam Fraser

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Milton Keynes Dons3-1-4-2
  1. Will DennisG
  2. Gethin JonesD
  3. Charlie GoodeD
  4. Cohen BramallD
  5. Marvin EkpitetaD
  6. Curtis NelsonD
  7. Daniel BarlaserM
  8. Ryan WintleM
  9. Ben WilesM
  10. Sam NombeF
  11. Aaron CollinsF

Substitutes

  • Sebastian Stacey
  • Jack Sanders
  • Alex Gilbey
  • Ibrahim Fullah
  • Keon Lewis-Burgess
  • Simone Troso
  • Samuel Silvera
Reading4-2-3-1
  1. Joel PereiraG
  2. Udoka Godwin-MalifeD
  3. Haydon RobertsD
  4. Paudie O’ConnorD
  5. Benn WardD
  6. Andy RinomhotaM
  7. Lewis WingM
  8. Josh StokesM
  9. Jamie ReidF
  10. Kyreece LisbieF
  11. Paddy LaneF

Substitutes

  • Jack Stevens
  • Conor Masterson
  • Liam Fraser
  • Charlie Savage
  • Daniel Kyerewaa
  • Randell Williams
  • Jacob Brown

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Milton Keynes Dons favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Reading in 12 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Milton Keynes Dons8 matchesReading9 matches
1.13 goals/matchGoals scored8/9▲ 2.44 goals/match
1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed8/9▲ 1.22 goals/match
1.38 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 2.15 xG/match
14 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 16 shots/match
3.38 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 5.13 shots/match
45%Possession8/8● 49.4%
5 corners/matchCorners8/8● 5.5 corners/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls8/810.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in League One

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMilton Keynes DonsReading
CompetitionLeague One
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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