PitchMath
Serie B · 2023

Ceará 3–1 Londrina · Serie B

Ceará

WLDDW
3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Ceará won 3–1.

Shots
1615
Shots on target
64
Expected goals
2.541.35
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

Ceará beat Londrina 3–1. Recorded in this match (Ceará – Londrina): shots 16–15, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 2.54–1.35, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Londrina's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Londrina's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.81 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.81 goals/match1.02 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Ceará have a visible home split

moderate

Ceará's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.9 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.9 shots/match13.7 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots15 shotsCeará 16 shots, Londrina 15 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shotsCeará 6 shots, Londrina 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.54 xG1.35 xGCeará 2.54 xG, Londrina 1.35 xG
  • Possession51%49%Ceará 51%, Londrina 49%
  • Corners5 corners7 cornersCeará 5 corners, Londrina 7 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls25 foulsCeará 12 fouls, Londrina 25 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Ceará
0Draws
0Londrina
Londrina — Ceará · Serie B1–3

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Ceará favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Londrina in 2 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Ceará27 matchesLondrina27 matches
1.11 goals/match ▲Goals scored27/270.81 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed27/271.52 goals/match
1.3 xG/match ▲Expected goals27/261.11 xG/match
13.7 shots/match ▲Shots27/2613 shots/match
4.41 shots/match ▲Shots on target27/263.15 shots/match
52.4% ●Possession27/2646.9%
5.37 corners/matchCorners27/26● 6.27 corners/match
17 fouls/matchFouls27/2617.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 7 Sept 2023, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie B

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCearáLondrina
CompetitionSerie BSerie B 2023
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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