PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Atlético Nacional 3–1 Junior Barranquilla · Primera A

3–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Atlético Nacional won 3–1.

Shots
199
Shots on target
62
Expected goals
1.831.12
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atlético Nacional beat Junior Barranquilla 3–1. Recorded in this match (Atlético Nacional – Junior Barranquilla): shots 19–9, shots on target 6–2, expected goals 1.83–1.12, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Junior Barranquilla's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Junior Barranquilla's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.51 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.51 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Atlético Nacional, Junior Barranquilla.

6.02 days ▲Rest daysAtlético Nacional · Junior Barranquilla3.99 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAtlético NacionalJunior BarranquillaBaseline
Rest days6.02 days3.99 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Atlético Nacional show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Atlético Nacional's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.6 shots/match ▲ShotsAtlético Nacional · Junior Barranquilla13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtlético NacionalJunior BarranquillaBaseline
Shots16.6 shots/match13.4 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against11.7 shots/match14.1 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots9 shotsAtlético Nacional 19 shots, Junior Barranquilla 9 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots2 shotsAtlético Nacional 6 shots, Junior Barranquilla 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.83 xG1.12 xGAtlético Nacional 1.83 xG, Junior Barranquilla 1.12 xG
  • Possession58%42%Atlético Nacional 58%, Junior Barranquilla 42%
  • Corners7 corners5 cornersAtlético Nacional 7 corners, Junior Barranquilla 5 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls15 foulsAtlético Nacional 13 fouls, Junior Barranquilla 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards5 cards5 cardsAtlético Nacional 5 cards, Junior Barranquilla 5 cards
  • Passes418 passes294 passesAtlético Nacional 418 passes, Junior Barranquilla 294 passes
  • Pass accuracy87.3%82%Atlético Nacional 87.3%, Junior Barranquilla 82%
  • Shots inside box9 shots6 shotsAtlético Nacional 9 shots, Junior Barranquilla 6 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks2 blocksAtlético Nacional 3 blocks, Junior Barranquilla 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save3 savesAtlético Nacional 1 save, Junior Barranquilla 3 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides4 offsidesAtlético Nacional 0 offsides, Junior Barranquilla 4 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Atlético Nacional
0Draws
1Junior Barranquilla
Atlético Nacional — Junior Barranquilla · Primera A1–0
Junior Barranquilla — Atlético Nacional · Primera A3–0
Junior Barranquilla — Atlético Nacional · Primera A0–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Nacional favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Junior Barranquilla in 1 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Nacional35 matchesJunior Barranquilla35 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored35/351.51 goals/match
0.89 goals/match ▲Goals allowed35/351.29 goals/match
1.54 xG/match ▲Expected goals35/321.21 xG/match
16.6 shots/match ▲Shots35/3413.4 shots/match
6.23 shots/match ▲Shots on target35/344.62 shots/match
58.1% ●Possession35/3453.1%
5.49 corners/match ●Corners35/344.74 corners/match
4 cards/matchCards7/72.57 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls35/3413.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples35 / 35home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 1 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlético NacionalJunior Barranquilla
CompetitionPrimera A
Head-to-headAtlético Nacional — Junior Barranquilla
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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