PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Independiente Medellín 2–2 Millonarios · Primera A

2–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Independiente Medellín and Millonarios drew 2–2.

Shots
99
Shots on target
34
Expected goals
0.80.47
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Independiente Medellín and Millonarios drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Independiente Medellín – Millonarios): shots 9–9, shots on target 3–4, expected goals 0.8–0.47, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Independiente Medellín.

2.99 days ▲Rest daysIndependiente Medellín · Millonarios5.02 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricIndependiente MedellínMillonariosBaseline
Rest days2.99 days5.02 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Millonarios's recent record differs from the season

weak

Millonarios's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.53 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.53 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.03 corners/matchCornersIndependiente Medellín · Millonarios● 5.72 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricIndependiente MedellínMillonariosBaseline
Corners5.03 corners/match5.72 corners/match4.41 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots9 shotsIndependiente Medellín 9 shots, Millonarios 9 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots4 shotsIndependiente Medellín 3 shots, Millonarios 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.8 xG0.47 xGIndependiente Medellín 0.8 xG, Millonarios 0.47 xG
  • Possession50%50%Independiente Medellín 50%, Millonarios 50%
  • Corners2 corners4 cornersIndependiente Medellín 2 corners, Millonarios 4 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls14 foulsIndependiente Medellín 12 fouls, Millonarios 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards3 cardsIndependiente Medellín 2 cards, Millonarios 3 cards
  • Passes397 passes401 passesIndependiente Medellín 397 passes, Millonarios 401 passes
  • Pass accuracy81.9%83.5%Independiente Medellín 81.9%, Millonarios 83.5%
  • Shots inside box6 shots3 shotsIndependiente Medellín 6 shots, Millonarios 3 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks3 blocksIndependiente Medellín 3 blocks, Millonarios 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves1 saveIndependiente Medellín 3 saves, Millonarios 1 save
  • Offsides0 offsides1 offsideIndependiente Medellín 0 offsides, Millonarios 1 offside

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Independiente Medellín
1Draws
0Millonarios
Millonarios — Independiente Medellín · Primera A0–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Independiente Medellín favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Millonarios in 5 · 8 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Independiente Medellín30 matchesMillonarios32 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored30/321.53 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed30/32▲ 1.06 goals/match
1.26 xG/matchExpected goals25/271.31 xG/match
14.5 shots/matchShots30/32▲ 15.3 shots/match
4.9 shots/matchShots on target30/32▲ 5.78 shots/match
52.8% ●Possession30/3248.8%
5.03 corners/matchCorners30/32● 5.72 corners/match
3.92 cards/matchCards12/74.14 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls30/3211.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples30 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 30 Sept 2026, 05:05 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsIndependiente MedellínMillonarios
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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