PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Atlético Nacional 1–1 Millonarios · Primera A

1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Atlético Nacional and Millonarios drew 1–1.

Shots
134
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
0.990.54
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atlético Nacional and Millonarios drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Atlético Nacional – Millonarios): shots 13–4, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 0.99–0.54, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Atlético Nacional, Millonarios.

3.97 days ▲Rest daysAtlético Nacional · Millonarios5.23 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAtlético NacionalMillonariosBaseline
Rest days3.97 days5.23 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.44 corners/matchCornersAtlético Nacional · Millonarios● 5.77 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricAtlético NacionalMillonariosBaseline
Corners5.44 corners/match5.77 corners/match4.42 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Atlético Nacional have a visible home split

moderate

Atlético Nacional's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

19.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season16.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots19.5 shots/match16.5 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots4 shotsAtlético Nacional 13 shots, Millonarios 4 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsAtlético Nacional 3 shots, Millonarios 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.99 xG0.54 xGAtlético Nacional 0.99 xG, Millonarios 0.54 xG
  • Possession59%41%Atlético Nacional 59%, Millonarios 41%
  • Corners3 corners2 cornersAtlético Nacional 3 corners, Millonarios 2 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls17 foulsAtlético Nacional 16 fouls, Millonarios 17 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards2 cardsAtlético Nacional 3 cards, Millonarios 2 cards
  • Passes388 passes270 passesAtlético Nacional 388 passes, Millonarios 270 passes
  • Pass accuracy83%70.7%Atlético Nacional 83%, Millonarios 70.7%
  • Shots inside box5 shots4 shotsAtlético Nacional 5 shots, Millonarios 4 shots
  • Blocked shots1 block0 blocksAtlético Nacional 1 block, Millonarios 0 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves2 savesAtlético Nacional 2 saves, Millonarios 2 saves
  • Offsides1 offside2 offsidesAtlético Nacional 1 offside, Millonarios 2 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Atlético Nacional
0Draws
1Millonarios
Millonarios — Atlético Nacional · Primera A3–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Nacional favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Millonarios in 4 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Nacional34 matchesMillonarios31 matches
1.97 goals/match ▲Goals scored34/311.52 goals/match
0.88 goals/match ▲Goals allowed34/311.03 goals/match
1.53 xG/match ▲Expected goals34/261.34 xG/match
16.5 shots/match ▲Shots34/3115.5 shots/match
6.24 shots/match ▲Shots on target34/315.84 shots/match
58.1% ●Possession34/3148.8%
5.44 corners/matchCorners34/31● 5.77 corners/match
4 cards/matchCards7/74.14 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls34/3111.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples34 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 25 Sept 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlético NacionalMillonarios
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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