PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Atlético Bucaramanga 3–1 Junior Barranquilla · Primera A

3–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Atlético Bucaramanga won 3–1.

Shots
1224
Shots on target
48
Expected goals
1.333.38
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atlético Bucaramanga beat Junior Barranquilla 3–1. Recorded in this match (Atlético Bucaramanga – Junior Barranquilla): shots 12–24, shots on target 4–8, expected goals 1.33–3.38, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atlético Bucaramanga's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atlético Bucaramanga's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.53 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match1.53 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Junior Barranquilla.

8.91 days ▲Rest daysAtlético Bucaramanga · Junior Barranquilla3.92 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAtlético BucaramangaJunior BarranquillaBaseline
Rest days8.91 days3.92 days—
Matches last 14 days1 match2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots24 shotsAtlético Bucaramanga 12 shots, Junior Barranquilla 24 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots8 shotsAtlético Bucaramanga 4 shots, Junior Barranquilla 8 shots
  • Expected goals1.33 xG3.38 xGAtlético Bucaramanga 1.33 xG, Junior Barranquilla 3.38 xG
  • Possession42%58%Atlético Bucaramanga 42%, Junior Barranquilla 58%
  • Corners2 corners7 cornersAtlético Bucaramanga 2 corners, Junior Barranquilla 7 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls7 foulsAtlético Bucaramanga 8 fouls, Junior Barranquilla 7 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards1 cardAtlético Bucaramanga 2 cards, Junior Barranquilla 1 card
  • Passes358 passes484 passesAtlético Bucaramanga 358 passes, Junior Barranquilla 484 passes
  • Pass accuracy82.4%84.1%Atlético Bucaramanga 82.4%, Junior Barranquilla 84.1%
  • Shots inside box5 shots18 shotsAtlético Bucaramanga 5 shots, Junior Barranquilla 18 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks4 blocksAtlético Bucaramanga 2 blocks, Junior Barranquilla 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves7 saves2 savesAtlético Bucaramanga 7 saves, Junior Barranquilla 2 saves
  • Offsides1 offside1 offsideAtlético Bucaramanga 1 offside, Junior Barranquilla 1 offside

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Atlético Bucaramanga
0Draws
1Junior Barranquilla
Junior Barranquilla — Atlético Bucaramanga · Primera A2–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Bucaramanga favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Junior Barranquilla in 5 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Bucaramanga30 matchesJunior Barranquilla36 matches
1.53 goals/matchGoals scored30/361.5 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed30/361.33 goals/match
1.06 xG/matchExpected goals22/33▲ 1.27 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShots29/35▲ 13.7 shots/match
4.14 shots/matchShots on target29/35▲ 4.71 shots/match
49.6%Possession29/35● 53.3%
3.83 corners/matchCorners29/35● 4.8 corners/match
4.6 cards/matchCards5/82.38 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls29/3512.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples30 / 36home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 5 Oct 2026, 03:10 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlético BucaramangaJunior Barranquilla
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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