PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Atlético Bucaramanga vs Junior Barranquilla · Primera A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.411.44
Expected goals
1.061.15
Shots
12.513.5
Possession
50.1%52.9%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: atlético Bucaramanga's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Atlético Bucaramanga's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atlético Bucaramanga's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8.4 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Bucaramanga favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Junior Barranquilla in 5 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Bucaramanga27 matchesJunior Barranquilla32 matches
1.41 goals/matchGoals scored27/321.44 goals/match
1.04 goals/match ▲Goals allowed27/321.28 goals/match
1.06 xG/matchExpected goals20/29▲ 1.15 xG/match
12.5 shots/matchShots27/31▲ 13.5 shots/match
4.15 shots/matchShots on target27/31▲ 4.52 shots/match
50.1%Possession27/31● 52.9%
3.96 corners/matchCorners27/31● 4.94 corners/match
5 cards/matchCards4/53 cards/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls27/3112.6 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Atlético Bucaramanga
0Draws
1Junior Barranquilla
Junior Barranquilla — Atlético Bucaramanga · Primera A2–0

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness22 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 23:10 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlético BucaramangaJunior Barranquilla
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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