PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Independiente Medellín 0–1 Independiente Santa Fe · Primera A

0–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Independiente Santa Fe won 0–1.

Shots
2016
Shots on target
66
Expected goals
0.742.47
Possession
60%40%

Full time

What the match recorded

Independiente Santa Fe beat Independiente Medellín 1–0. Recorded in this match (Independiente Medellín – Independiente Santa Fe): shots 20–16, shots on target 6–6, expected goals 0.74–2.47, possession 60%–40%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Independiente Medellín's recent record differs from the season

weak

Independiente Medellín's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.45 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.45 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Independiente Medellín.

5.95 days ▲Rest daysIndependiente Medellín · Independiente Santa Fe6.15 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricIndependiente MedellínIndependiente Santa FeBaseline
Rest days5.95 days6.15 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Independiente Medellín show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Independiente Medellín's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.7 shots/match ▲ShotsIndependiente Medellín · Independiente Santa Fe12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricIndependiente MedellínIndependiente Santa FeBaseline
Shots14.7 shots/match12.8 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against10.7 shots/match13.1 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots16 shotsIndependiente Medellín 20 shots, Independiente Santa Fe 16 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots6 shotsIndependiente Medellín 6 shots, Independiente Santa Fe 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.74 xG2.47 xGIndependiente Medellín 0.74 xG, Independiente Santa Fe 2.47 xG
  • Possession60%40%Independiente Medellín 60%, Independiente Santa Fe 40%
  • Corners7 corners5 cornersIndependiente Medellín 7 corners, Independiente Santa Fe 5 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls13 foulsIndependiente Medellín 11 fouls, Independiente Santa Fe 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards5 cards4 cardsIndependiente Medellín 5 cards, Independiente Santa Fe 4 cards
  • Passes439 passes298 passesIndependiente Medellín 439 passes, Independiente Santa Fe 298 passes
  • Pass accuracy87.2%81.5%Independiente Medellín 87.2%, Independiente Santa Fe 81.5%
  • Shots inside box7 shots8 shotsIndependiente Medellín 7 shots, Independiente Santa Fe 8 shots
  • Blocked shots6 blocks4 blocksIndependiente Medellín 6 blocks, Independiente Santa Fe 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves6 savesIndependiente Medellín 4 saves, Independiente Santa Fe 6 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides1 offsideIndependiente Medellín 3 offsides, Independiente Santa Fe 1 offside

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Independiente Medellín
0Draws
1Independiente Santa Fe
Independiente Santa Fe — Independiente Medellín · Primera A2–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Independiente Medellín favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Independiente Santa Fe in 3 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Independiente Medellín31 matchesIndependiente Santa Fe35 matches
1.45 goals/matchGoals scored31/35▲ 1.54 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed31/35▲ 1.03 goals/match
1.24 xG/match ▲Expected goals26/321.17 xG/match
14.7 shots/match ▲Shots31/3512.8 shots/match
4.94 shots/matchShots on target31/354.91 shots/match
53.1% ●Possession31/3546.9%
5.1 corners/match ●Corners31/354.8 corners/match
3.92 cards/matchCards12/103.9 cards/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls31/3510.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples31 / 35home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 6 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsIndependiente MedellínIndependiente Santa Fe
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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