PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2026

Hamburger SV 2–1 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Hamburger SV won 2–1.

Shots
1218
Shots on target
75
Expected goals
1.71.79
Possession
32%68%

Full time

What the match recorded

Hamburger SV beat 1. FC Köln 2–1. Recorded in this match (Hamburger SV – 1. FC Köln): shots 12–18, shots on target 7–5, expected goals 1.7–1.79, possession 32%–68%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Hamburger SV show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Hamburger SV's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHamburger SV · 1. FC Köln17.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHamburger SV1. FC KölnBaseline
Shots9.5 shots/match17.3 shots/match15 shots/match
Shots against18.5 shots/match15.8 shots/match16.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

1. FC Köln have recorded the higher season possession share.

41.5%PossessionHamburger SV · 1. FC Köln● 49.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricHamburger SV1. FC KölnBaseline
Possession41.5%49.5%50.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots18 shotsHamburger SV 12 shots, 1. FC Köln 18 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots5 shotsHamburger SV 7 shots, 1. FC Köln 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.7 xG1.79 xGHamburger SV 1.7 xG, 1. FC Köln 1.79 xG
  • Possession32%68%Hamburger SV 32%, 1. FC Köln 68%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersHamburger SV 3 corners, 1. FC Köln 5 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls14 foulsHamburger SV 12 fouls, 1. FC Köln 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card3 cardsHamburger SV 1 card, 1. FC Köln 3 cards
  • Passes267 passes566 passesHamburger SV 267 passes, 1. FC Köln 566 passes
  • Pass accuracy75.7%88.2%Hamburger SV 75.7%, 1. FC Köln 88.2%
  • Shots inside box7 shots12 shotsHamburger SV 7 shots, 1. FC Köln 12 shots
  • Blocked shots1 block7 blocksHamburger SV 1 block, 1. FC Köln 7 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves5 savesHamburger SV 4 saves, 1. FC Köln 5 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides1 offsideHamburger SV 2 offsides, 1. FC Köln 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 10′Albert GrønbækYellow card · Hamburger SV
  2. 44′Nicolás CapaldoGoal · Hamburger SV
  3. Half-time
  4. 49′Yussuf PoulsenGoal · Hamburger SV
  5. 54′Gideon MensahYellow card · 1. FC Köln
  6. 77′Ísak Bergmann JóhannessonYellow card · 1. FC Köln
  7. 84′Ellyes SkhiriYellow card · 1. FC Köln
  8. 90′Ragnar AcheGoal · 1. FC Köln
  9. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Hamburger SV · 1 player changeYussuf Poulsen
  • 64′1. FC Köln · 2 player changesRagnar Ache · Borna Sosa
  • 67′Hamburger SV · 1 player changePatson Daka
  • 67′1. FC Köln · 1 player changeÍsak Bergmann Jóhannesson
  • 77′Hamburger SV · 2 player changesLouis Lemke · Bakery Jatta
  • 81′1. FC Köln · 2 player changesMarius Bülter · Luca Waldschmidt
  • 90′Hamburger SV · 1 player changeMartin Adeline

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Hamburger SV3-4-2-1
  1. Daniel FernandesG
  2. David Møller WolfeD
  3. Zakaria El OuahdiD
  4. Warmed OmariD
  5. Jordan TorunarighaD
  6. Nicolás CapaldoD
  7. Albert Sambi LokongaM
  8. Nicolai RembergM
  9. Albert GrønbækF
  10. Yussuf PoulsenF
  11. Fábio VieiraF
1. FC Köln4-2-3-1
  1. Marvin SchwäbeG
  2. Gideon MensahD
  3. Jahmai Simpson-PuseyD
  4. Luka LochoshviliD
  5. Sebastian SebulonsenD
  6. Tom KraußM
  7. Ellyes SkhiriM
  8. Mikey MooreM
  9. Ragnar AcheF
  10. Said El MalaF
  11. Linton MainaF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Hamburger SV
1Draws
11. FC Köln
Hamburger SV — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga1–1
1. FC Köln — Hamburger SV · Bundesliga4–1
Hamburger SV — 1. FC Köln · 2. Bundesliga1–0
1. FC Köln — Hamburger SV · 2. Bundesliga1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Hamburger SV favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · 1. FC Köln in 0 · 13 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Hamburger SV4 matches1. FC Köln4 matches
0.5 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲ 1.5 goals/match
3.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲ 2.25 goals/match
0.91 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲ 1.92 xG/match
9.5 shots/matchShots4/4▲ 17.3 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲ 5.5 shots/match
41.5%Possession4/4● 49.5%
3.75 corners/matchCorners4/4● 6.75 corners/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls4/410.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHamburger SV1. FC Köln
CompetitionBundesliga
Head-to-headHamburger SV — 1. FC Köln
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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