PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2026

Borussia M'gladbach 3–4 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

3–4Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

1. FSV Mainz 05 won 3–4.

Shots
2116
Shots on target
77
Expected goals
3.362.58
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FSV Mainz 05 beat Borussia M'gladbach 4–3. Recorded in this match (Borussia M'gladbach – 1. FSV Mainz 05): shots 21–16, shots on target 7–7, expected goals 3.36–2.58, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.75 corners/match ●CornersBorussia M'gladbach · 1. FSV Mainz 056 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricBorussia M'gladbach1. FSV Mainz 05Baseline
Corners6.75 corners/match6 corners/match5 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

1. FSV Mainz 05 show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

1. FSV Mainz 05's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.5 shots/match ▲ShotsBorussia M'gladbach · 1. FSV Mainz 0518.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBorussia M'gladbach1. FSV Mainz 05Baseline
Shots16.5 shots/match18.5 shots/match14.9 shots/match
Shots against18.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match16.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots16 shotsBorussia M'gladbach 21 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 16 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots7 shotsBorussia M'gladbach 7 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 7 shots
  • Expected goals3.36 xG2.58 xGBorussia M'gladbach 3.36 xG, 1. FSV Mainz 05 2.58 xG
  • Possession47%53%Borussia M'gladbach 47%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 53%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersBorussia M'gladbach 6 corners, 1. FSV Mainz 05 4 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls12 foulsBorussia M'gladbach 11 fouls, 1. FSV Mainz 05 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards6 cards5 cardsBorussia M'gladbach 6 cards, 1. FSV Mainz 05 5 cards
  • Passes423 passes480 passesBorussia M'gladbach 423 passes, 1. FSV Mainz 05 480 passes
  • Pass accuracy79.2%81%Borussia M'gladbach 79.2%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 81%
  • Shots inside box15 shots14 shotsBorussia M'gladbach 15 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 14 shots
  • Blocked shots7 blocks2 blocksBorussia M'gladbach 7 blocks, 1. FSV Mainz 05 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves4 savesBorussia M'gladbach 4 saves, 1. FSV Mainz 05 4 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides2 offsidesBorussia M'gladbach 0 offsides, 1. FSV Mainz 05 2 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 11′Florian NeuhausGoal · Borussia M'gladbach
  2. 18′Phillip TietzGoal · 1. FSV Mainz 05
  3. 19′Lukas UllrichYellow card · Borussia M'gladbach
  4. 45′Sheraldo BeckerGoal · 1. FSV Mainz 05
  5. Half-time
  6. 55′Philipp SanderYellow card · Borussia M'gladbach
  7. 55′Stefan PoschYellow card · 1. FSV Mainz 05
  8. 57′Kevin DiksPenalty missed · Borussia M'gladbach
  9. 59′Isac LidbergGoal · Borussia M'gladbach
  10. 62′Florian NeuhausYellow card · Borussia M'gladbach
  11. 73′Phillipp MweneYellow card · 1. FSV Mainz 05
  12. 78′Eric MartelGoal · 1. FSV Mainz 05
  13. 87′Kevin StögerYellow card · Borussia M'gladbach
  14. 87′Wael MohyaYellow card · Borussia M'gladbach
  15. 89′Danny da CostaGoal · 1. FSV Mainz 05
  16. 90′Shuto MachinoYellow card · Borussia M'gladbach
  17. 90′Kacper PotulskiYellow card · 1. FSV Mainz 05
  18. 90′Alexander SchwolowYellow card · 1. FSV Mainz 05
  19. 90′Shuto MachinoPenalty goal · Borussia M'gladbach
  20. 90′Ransford Yeboah KönigsdörfferYellow card · 1. FSV Mainz 05
  21. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 64′Borussia M'gladbach · 1 player changeWael Mohya
  • 65′1. FSV Mainz 05 · 2 player changesEric Martel · Danny da Costa
  • 76′1. FSV Mainz 05 · 1 player changeRansford Yeboah Königsdörffer
  • 76′Borussia M'gladbach · 2 player changesDaiki Hashioka · Kevin Stöger
  • 84′Borussia M'gladbach · 2 player changesShuto Machino · Robin Hack
  • 90′1. FSV Mainz 05 · 1 player changeLennard Maloney

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Borussia M'gladbach3-4-2-1
  1. Moritz NicolasG
  2. Kevin DiksD
  3. Jan LeszczyńskiD
  4. Ko ItakuraD
  5. Franck HonoratD
  6. Lukas UllrichD
  7. Kevin StögerM
  8. Philipp SanderM
  9. Isac LidbergF
  10. Florian NeuhausF
  11. Hugo BolinF
1. FSV Mainz 053-5-2
  1. Alexander SchwolowG
  2. Phillipp MweneD
  3. Fabio GruberD
  4. Stefan PoschD
  5. Anthony CaciD
  6. Kacper PotulskiD
  7. Kaishu SanoM
  8. Jae-sung LeeM
  9. Nadiem AmiriM
  10. Phillip TietzF
  11. Sheraldo BeckerF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Borussia M'gladbach
3Draws
11. FSV Mainz 05
Borussia M'gladbach — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — Borussia M'gladbach · Bundesliga0–1
Borussia M'gladbach — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–3
1. FSV Mainz 05 — Borussia M'gladbach · Bundesliga1–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — Borussia M'gladbach · Bundesliga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Borussia M'gladbach favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 0 · 13 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Borussia M'gladbach4 matches1. FSV Mainz 054 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲ 2.5 goals/match
4 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲ 1.5 goals/match
1.64 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲ 2.24 xG/match
16.5 shots/matchShots4/4▲ 18.5 shots/match
4.25 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲ 6 shots/match
47.5%Possession4/4● 51.3%
6.75 corners/match ●Corners4/46 corners/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls4/412.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBorussia M'gladbach1. FSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesliga
Head-to-headBorussia M'gladbach — 1. FSV Mainz 05
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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