PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2026

RB Leipzig 5–0 Hamburger SV · Bundesliga

5–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

RB Leipzig won 5–0.

Shots
1910
Shots on target
64
Expected goals
2.380.94
Possession
64%36%

Full time

What the match recorded

RB Leipzig beat Hamburger SV 5–0. Recorded in this match (RB Leipzig – Hamburger SV): shots 19–10, shots on target 6–4, expected goals 2.38–0.94, possession 64%–36%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Hamburger SV show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Hamburger SV's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

21 shots/match ▲ShotsRB Leipzig · Hamburger SV8.67 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRB LeipzigHamburger SVBaseline
Shots21 shots/match8.67 shots/match15.7 shots/match
Shots against12.3 shots/match18.7 shots/match17.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

RB Leipzig have recorded the higher season possession share.

60.7% ●PossessionRB Leipzig · Hamburger SV44.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricRB LeipzigHamburger SVBaseline
Possession60.7%44.7%50.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots10 shotsRB Leipzig 19 shots, Hamburger SV 10 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots4 shotsRB Leipzig 6 shots, Hamburger SV 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.38 xG0.94 xGRB Leipzig 2.38 xG, Hamburger SV 0.94 xG
  • Possession64%36%RB Leipzig 64%, Hamburger SV 36%
  • Corners7 corners7 cornersRB Leipzig 7 corners, Hamburger SV 7 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls13 foulsRB Leipzig 11 fouls, Hamburger SV 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsRB Leipzig 1 card, Hamburger SV 2 cards
  • Passes623 passes350 passesRB Leipzig 623 passes, Hamburger SV 350 passes
  • Pass accuracy89.4%81.4%RB Leipzig 89.4%, Hamburger SV 81.4%
  • Shots inside box12 shots7 shotsRB Leipzig 12 shots, Hamburger SV 7 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks2 blocksRB Leipzig 4 blocks, Hamburger SV 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves1 saveRB Leipzig 4 saves, Hamburger SV 1 save
  • Offsides0 offsides3 offsidesRB Leipzig 0 offsides, Hamburger SV 3 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 6′Nicolás CapaldoYellow card · Hamburger SV
  2. 17′Tidiam GomisGoal · RB Leipzig
  3. 28′Antonio NusaGoal · RB Leipzig
  4. Half-time
  5. 48′Castello LukebaYellow card · RB Leipzig
  6. 71′Shafiq NandjaYellow card · Hamburger SV
  7. 72′Willi OrbánGoal · RB Leipzig
  8. 74′Christopher NkunkuGoal · RB Leipzig
  9. 77′RômuloGoal · RB Leipzig
  10. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 35′RB Leipzig · 1 player changeChristopher Nkunku
  • 46′Hamburger SV · 1 player changeTerem Moffi
  • 73′Hamburger SV · 2 player changesWarmed Omari · Fábio Vieira
  • 74′RB Leipzig · 3 player changesRômulo · Ridle Baku · Maxime Estève
  • 78′Hamburger SV · 1 player changeOtto Stange
  • 78′RB Leipzig · 1 player changeMax Finkgräfe
  • 89′Hamburger SV · 1 player changeBakery Jatta

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

RB Leipzig4-3-3
  1. Maarten VandevoordtG
  2. Willi OrbánD
  3. Ridle BakuD
  4. David RaumD
  5. Castello LukebaD
  6. Ezechiel BanzuziM
  7. Brajan GrudaM
  8. Nicolas SeiwaldM
  9. Antonio NusaF
  10. Christopher NkunkuF
  11. Andrija MaksimovićF
Hamburger SV3-4-2-1
  1. Daniel FernandesG
  2. David Møller WolfeD
  3. Zakaria El OuahdiD
  4. Jordan TorunarighaD
  5. Nicolás CapaldoD
  6. Shafiq NandjaD
  7. Albert Sambi LokongaM
  8. Nicolai RembergM
  9. Albert GrønbækF
  10. Fábio VieiraF
  11. Patson DakaF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2RB Leipzig
0Draws
0Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga1–2
RB Leipzig — Hamburger SV · Bundesliga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: RB Leipzig favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Hamburger SV in 0 · 13 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

RB Leipzig3 matchesHamburger SV3 matches
3 goals/match ▲Goals scored3/30 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed3/34 goals/match
2.63 xG/match ▲Expected goals3/30.64 xG/match
21 shots/match ▲Shots3/38.67 shots/match
7.33 shots/match ▲Shots on target3/32.67 shots/match
60.7% ●Possession3/344.7%
7 corners/match ●Corners3/34 corners/match
9.67 fouls/matchFouls3/315.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 13 Sept 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRB LeipzigHamburger SV
CompetitionBundesliga
Head-to-headRB Leipzig — Hamburger SV
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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