PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

VfL Wolfsburg 1–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 1–2.

Shots
1813
Shots on target
67
Expected goals
1.481.92
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayer 04 Leverkusen beat VfL Wolfsburg 2–1. Recorded in this match (VfL Wolfsburg – Bayer 04 Leverkusen): shots 18–13, shots on target 6–7, expected goals 1.48–1.92, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfL Wolfsburg have a visible home split

weak

VfL Wolfsburg's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.5 shots/match12.9 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.9 shots/match ▲ShotsVfL Wolfsburg · Bayer 04 Leverkusen17 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVfL WolfsburgBayer 04 LeverkusenBaseline
Shots12.9 shots/match17 shots/match13.1 shots/match
Shots against13.6 shots/match10.5 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Bayer 04 Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

47%PossessionVfL Wolfsburg · Bayer 04 Leverkusen● 59.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVfL WolfsburgBayer 04 LeverkusenBaseline
Possession47%59.3%47.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots13 shotsVfL Wolfsburg 18 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 13 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots7 shotsVfL Wolfsburg 6 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 7 shots
  • Expected goals1.48 xG1.92 xGVfL Wolfsburg 1.48 xG, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.92 xG
  • Possession42%58%VfL Wolfsburg 42%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 58%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersVfL Wolfsburg 4 corners, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls14 foulsVfL Wolfsburg 15 fouls, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jonathan Tah · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 9′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 38′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLovro Majer · VfL Wolfsburg · 73′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEdmond Tapsoba · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 78′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTiago Tomás · VfL Wolfsburg · 15′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKevin Paredes · VfL Wolfsburg · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRidle Baku · VfL Wolfsburg · 17′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYannick Gerhardt · VfL Wolfsburg · 65′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 68′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 87′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAmine Adli · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 27′ · 0.05 xG · on targetVictor Okoh Boniface · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 31′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedYannick Gerhardt · VfL Wolfsburg · 38′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 44′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 70′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKevin Paredes · VfL Wolfsburg · 81′ · 0.08 xG · on targetMaximilian Arnold · VfL Wolfsburg · 1′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 62′ · 0.12 xG · goalJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.12 xG · on targetJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 39′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedVictor Okoh Boniface · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 53′ · 0.18 xG · on targetVictor Okoh Boniface · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 61′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedMaxence Lacroix · VfL Wolfsburg · 41′ · 0.22 xG · goalJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.22 xG · on targetJeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 13′ · 0.23 xG · goalTiago Tomás · VfL Wolfsburg · 15′ · 0.32 xG · on targetVictor Okoh Boniface · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 67′ · 0.39 xG · on targetJeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 77′ · 0.44 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfL Wolfsburg: 18 shots, 6 on target, 1.52 xG. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 13 shots, 7 on target, 1.87 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Maxence Lacroix · VfL Wolfsburg · 41′Jeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 13′Alejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 62′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfL Wolfsburg 1.52 xG · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.87 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1VfL Wolfsburg
2Draws
1Bayer 04 Leverkusen
VfL Wolfsburg — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga0–0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga2–2
VfL Wolfsburg — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga0–2
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfL Wolfsburg favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Bayer 04 Leverkusen in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfL Wolfsburg8 matchesBayer 04 Leverkusen8 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 3.13 goals/match
1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 0.88 goals/match
1.49 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 2.38 xG/match
12.9 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 17 shots/match
5.5 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 8.25 shots/match
47%Possession8/8● 59.3%
3.5 corners/matchCorners8/8● 5.25 corners/match
12 fouls/matchFouls8/89.63 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Oct 2023, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfL WolfsburgBayer 04 Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headVfL Wolfsburg — Bayer 04 Leverkusen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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