PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

VfL Wolfsburg 2–1 RB Leipzig · Bundesliga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

VfL Wolfsburg won 2–1.

Shots
1025
Shots on target
49
Expected goals
0.962.77
Possession
36%64%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfL Wolfsburg beat RB Leipzig 2–1. Recorded in this match (VfL Wolfsburg – RB Leipzig): shots 10–25, shots on target 4–9, expected goals 0.96–2.77, possession 36%–64%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

RB Leipzig's recent record differs from the season

weak

RB Leipzig's last-five shots average is above their season average.

17.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots17.2 shots/match14.5 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

VfL Wolfsburg show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

VfL Wolfsburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.7 shots/match ▲ShotsVfL Wolfsburg · RB Leipzig14.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVfL WolfsburgRB LeipzigBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match14.5 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against14.2 shots/match10.5 shots/match14.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

RB Leipzig have recorded the higher season possession share.

48.6%PossessionVfL Wolfsburg · RB Leipzig● 57.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVfL WolfsburgRB LeipzigBaseline
Possession48.6%57.8%47.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots25 shotsVfL Wolfsburg 10 shots, RB Leipzig 25 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots9 shotsVfL Wolfsburg 4 shots, RB Leipzig 9 shots
  • Expected goals0.96 xG2.77 xGVfL Wolfsburg 0.96 xG, RB Leipzig 2.77 xG
  • Possession36%64%VfL Wolfsburg 36%, RB Leipzig 64%
  • Corners1 corner12 cornersVfL Wolfsburg 1 corner, RB Leipzig 12 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls12 foulsVfL Wolfsburg 17 fouls, RB Leipzig 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 31′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCedric Zesiger · VfL Wolfsburg · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Simakan · RB Leipzig · 55′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedYussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig · 20′ · 0.03 xG · on targetChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 73′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Henrichs · RB Leipzig · 88′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedXaver Schlager · RB Leipzig · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 56′ · 0.04 xG · on targetKevin Paredes · VfL Wolfsburg · 81′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 6′ · 0.05 xG · on targetLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 17′ · 0.05 xG · on targetXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Simakan · RB Leipzig · 4′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 27′ · 0.07 xG · on targetBenjamin Henrichs · RB Leipzig · 39′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 53′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedVáclav Černý · VfL Wolfsburg · 62′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedCastello Lukeba · RB Leipzig · 75′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAmadou Haidara · RB Leipzig · 38′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedYussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 60′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 28′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAmadou Haidara · RB Leipzig · 40′ · 0.10 xG · on targetLovro Majer · VfL Wolfsburg · 6′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 6′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedYussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig · 60′ · 0.16 xG · on targetLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 17′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 9′ · 0.20 xG · goalChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 28′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedRogério · VfL Wolfsburg · 66′ · 0.21 xG · goalChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 39′ · 0.28 xG · on targetLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 79′ · 0.44 xG · off target or blockedYussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig · 52′ · 0.46 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfL Wolfsburg: 10 shots, 4 on target, 0.94 xG. RB Leipzig: 25 shots, 9 on target, 2.79 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Jonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 9′Rogério · VfL Wolfsburg · 66′Yussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig · 52′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfL Wolfsburg 0.94 xG · RB Leipzig 2.79 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1VfL Wolfsburg
0Draws
3RB Leipzig
VfL Wolfsburg — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga0–3
RB Leipzig — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga2–0
RB Leipzig — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga2–0
VfL Wolfsburg — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfL Wolfsburg favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfL Wolfsburg12 matchesRB Leipzig12 matches
1.42 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲ 2.42 goals/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲ 1 goal/match
1.37 xG/matchExpected goals12/12▲ 1.75 xG/match
12.7 shots/matchShots12/12▲ 14.5 shots/match
5.17 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲ 6.5 shots/match
48.6%Possession12/12● 57.8%
3.67 corners/matchCorners12/12● 6.17 corners/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls12/1210.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Nov 2023, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfL WolfsburgRB Leipzig
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headVfL Wolfsburg — RB Leipzig
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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