PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

VfL Bochum 1848 3–1 VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

VfL Bochum 1848 won 3–1.

Shots
2016
Shots on target
86
Expected goals
1.51.29
Possession
43%57%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfL Bochum 1848 beat VfL Wolfsburg 3–1. Recorded in this match (VfL Bochum 1848 – VfL Wolfsburg): shots 20–16, shots on target 8–6, expected goals 1.5–1.29, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfL Bochum 1848's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfL Bochum 1848's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.08 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.08 goals/match1.44 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

VfL Bochum 1848 have a visible home split

moderate

VfL Bochum 1848's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

20.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots20.5 shots/match14.8 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13.5 fouls/matchFoulsVfL Bochum 1848 · VfL Wolfsburg12.9 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricVfL Bochum 1848VfL WolfsburgBaseline
Fouls13.5 fouls/match12.9 fouls/match11.7 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots16 shotsVfL Bochum 1848 20 shots, VfL Wolfsburg 16 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots6 shotsVfL Bochum 1848 8 shots, VfL Wolfsburg 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.5 xG1.29 xGVfL Bochum 1848 1.5 xG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.29 xG
  • Possession43%57%VfL Bochum 1848 43%, VfL Wolfsburg 57%
  • Corners6 corners6 cornersVfL Bochum 1848 6 corners, VfL Wolfsburg 6 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls13 foulsVfL Bochum 1848 14 fouls, VfL Wolfsburg 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Philipp Hofmann · VfL Bochum 1848 · 29′ · 0.01 xG · on targetAnthony Losilla · VfL Bochum 1848 · 38′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRidle Baku · VfL Wolfsburg · 43′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKevin Paredes · VfL Wolfsburg · 78′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBernardo · VfL Bochum 1848 · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLovro Majer · VfL Wolfsburg · 26′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBernardo · VfL Bochum 1848 · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBernardo · VfL Bochum 1848 · 39′ · 0.02 xG · goalKevin Stöger · VfL Bochum 1848 · 58′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMaximilian Wittek · VfL Bochum 1848 · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Wittek · VfL Bochum 1848 · 83′ · 0.02 xG · on targetCedric Zesiger · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMaxence Lacroix · VfL Wolfsburg · 23′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBernardo · VfL Bochum 1848 · 71′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYannick Gerhardt · VfL Wolfsburg · 78′ · 0.04 xG · on targetErhan Mašović · VfL Bochum 1848 · 79′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTakuma Asano · VfL Bochum 1848 · 19′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTakuma Asano · VfL Bochum 1848 · 24′ · 0.05 xG · on targetTakuma Asano · VfL Bochum 1848 · 41′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 65′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 82′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTakuma Asano · VfL Bochum 1848 · 70′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMoritz Kwarteng · VfL Bochum 1848 · 79′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 75′ · 0.07 xG · on targetLovro Majer · VfL Wolfsburg · 6′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 75′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Losilla · VfL Bochum 1848 · 79′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedTiago Tomás · VfL Wolfsburg · 85′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedYannick Gerhardt · VfL Wolfsburg · 86′ · 0.11 xG · on targetMatúš Bero · VfL Bochum 1848 · 15′ · 0.12 xG · on targetTiago Tomás · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Osterhage · VfL Bochum 1848 · 19′ · 0.14 xG · goalMoritz Broschinski · VfL Bochum 1848 · 90′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 45′ · 0.42 xG · goalChristopher Antwi-Adjei · VfL Bochum 1848 · 87′ · 0.49 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfL Bochum 1848: 20 shots, 8 on target, 1.53 xG. VfL Wolfsburg: 16 shots, 6 on target, 1.25 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Patrick Osterhage · VfL Bochum 1848 · 19′Bernardo · VfL Bochum 1848 · 39′Christopher Antwi-Adjei · VfL Bochum 1848 · 87′Mattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfL Bochum 1848 1.53 xG · VfL Wolfsburg 1.25 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfL Bochum 1848 favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfL Bochum 184813 matchesVfL Wolfsburg13 matches
1.08 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲ 1.38 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲ 1.85 goals/match
1.35 xG/matchExpected goals13/131.36 xG/match
14.8 shots/match ▲Shots13/1312.9 shots/match
4.77 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲ 5.23 shots/match
45%Possession13/13● 49.2%
3.69 corners/matchCorners13/13● 3.85 corners/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls13/1312.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 Dec 2023, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfL Bochum 1848VfL Wolfsburg
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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