PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 SC Freiburg · Bundesliga

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

SC Freiburg won 0–1.

Shots
104
Shots on target
21
Expected goals
1.191.09
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

SC Freiburg beat VfL Wolfsburg 1–0. Recorded in this match (VfL Wolfsburg – SC Freiburg): shots 10–4, shots on target 2–1, expected goals 1.19–1.09, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

weak

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.29 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.29 goals/match1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

SC Freiburg have a visible away split

moderate

SC Freiburg's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.5 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.5 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots4 shotsVfL Wolfsburg 10 shots, SC Freiburg 4 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots1 shotVfL Wolfsburg 2 shots, SC Freiburg 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.19 xG1.09 xGVfL Wolfsburg 1.19 xG, SC Freiburg 1.09 xG
  • Possession58%42%VfL Wolfsburg 58%, SC Freiburg 42%
  • Corners5 corners3 cornersVfL Wolfsburg 5 corners, SC Freiburg 3 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls16 foulsVfL Wolfsburg 11 fouls, SC Freiburg 16 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ridle Baku · VfL Wolfsburg · 42′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKiliann Sildillia · SC Freiburg · 37′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 68′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoakim Mæhle · VfL Wolfsburg · 75′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kamiński · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 20′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 54′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMichael Gregoritsch · SC Freiburg · 74′ · 0.11 xG · goalMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 4′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedLovro Majer · VfL Wolfsburg · 30′ · 0.16 xG · on targetMichael Gregoritsch · SC Freiburg · 44′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedYannick Gerhardt · VfL Wolfsburg · 6′ · 0.30 xG · on targetLovro Majer · VfL Wolfsburg · 24′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedMatthias Ginter · SC Freiburg · 19′ · 0.76 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfL Wolfsburg: 10 shots, 2 on target, 1.23 xG. SC Freiburg: 4 shots, 1 on target, 1.12 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Michael Gregoritsch · SC Freiburg · 74′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfL Wolfsburg 1.23 xG · SC Freiburg 1.12 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1VfL Wolfsburg
0Draws
3SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga2–0
VfL Wolfsburg — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga6–0
SC Freiburg — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga3–2
VfL Wolfsburg — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfL Wolfsburg favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · SC Freiburg in 3 · 5 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfL Wolfsburg14 matchesSC Freiburg14 matches
1.29 goals/match ▲Goals scored14/141.21 goals/match
1.79 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲ 1.64 goals/match
1.35 xG/matchExpected goals14/141.41 xG/match
12.7 shots/match ▲Shots14/1412.1 shots/match
5 shots/match ▲Shots on target14/144.29 shots/match
49.9% ●Possession14/1446.9%
3.93 corners/matchCorners14/14● 4.29 corners/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls14/1410.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 9 Dec 2023, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfL WolfsburgSC Freiburg
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headVfL Wolfsburg — SC Freiburg
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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