PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

RB Leipzig 2–1 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

RB Leipzig won 2–1.

Shots
237
Shots on target
81
Expected goals
4.071.11
Possession
71%29%

Full time

What the match recorded

RB Leipzig beat 1. FC Heidenheim 2–1. Recorded in this match (RB Leipzig – 1. FC Heidenheim): shots 23–7, shots on target 8–1, expected goals 4.07–1.11, possession 71%–29%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

RB Leipzig's recent record differs from the season

moderate

RB Leipzig's last-five shots average is above their season average.

19.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season15.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots19.8 shots/match15.2 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.08 corners/match ●CornersRB Leipzig · 1. FC Heidenheim5.85 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricRB Leipzig1. FC HeidenheimBaseline
Corners6.08 corners/match5.85 corners/match4.52 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

1. FC Heidenheim have a visible away split

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.71 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.71 shots/match11.7 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots23 shots7 shotsRB Leipzig 23 shots, 1. FC Heidenheim 7 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots1 shotRB Leipzig 8 shots, 1. FC Heidenheim 1 shot
  • Expected goals4.07 xG1.11 xGRB Leipzig 4.07 xG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.11 xG
  • Possession71%29%RB Leipzig 71%, 1. FC Heidenheim 29%
  • Corners5 corners3 cornersRB Leipzig 5 corners, 1. FC Heidenheim 3 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls16 foulsRB Leipzig 13 fouls, 1. FC Heidenheim 16 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

David Raum · RB Leipzig · 21′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig · 43′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 17′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJan Schöppner · 1. FC Heidenheim · 76′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAmadou Haidara · RB Leipzig · 12′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 81′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 11′ · 0.06 xG · on targetBenjamin Henrichs · RB Leipzig · 22′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig · 8′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 24′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 47′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 78′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAdrian Beck · 1. FC Heidenheim · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAdrian Beck · 1. FC Heidenheim · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 47′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Simakan · RB Leipzig · 43′ · 0.10 xG · on targetXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 69′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 47′ · 0.12 xG · on targetBenedikt Gimber · 1. FC Heidenheim · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Pieringer · 1. FC Heidenheim · 14′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 77′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 90′ · 0.18 xG · on targetLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 88′ · 0.24 xG · on targetBenedikt Gimber · 1. FC Heidenheim · 45′ · 0.27 xG · goalXaver Schlager · RB Leipzig · 55′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blockedJan Schöppner · 1. FC Heidenheim · 45′ · 0.37 xG · off target or blockedYussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig · 5′ · 0.40 xG · on targetLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 1′ · 0.42 xG · off target or blockedYussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig · 44′ · 0.55 xG · goalLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 29′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

RB Leipzig: 23 shots, 8 on target, 4.14 xG. 1. FC Heidenheim: 7 shots, 1 on target, 1.11 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

02.254.50′HT90′Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 29′Yussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig · 44′Benedikt Gimber · 1. FC Heidenheim · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: RB Leipzig 4.14 xG · 1. FC Heidenheim 1.11 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: RB Leipzig favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FC Heidenheim in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

RB Leipzig13 matches1. FC Heidenheim13 matches
2.38 goals/match ▲Goals scored13/131.38 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed13/132.15 goals/match
1.93 xG/match ▲Expected goals13/131.27 xG/match
15.2 shots/match ▲Shots13/1311.7 shots/match
6.62 shots/match ▲Shots on target13/133.62 shots/match
58.8% ●Possession13/1341.2%
6.08 corners/match ●Corners13/135.85 corners/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls13/1312.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 Dec 2023, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRB Leipzig1. FC Heidenheim
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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