PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

1. FC Köln 1–1 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Köln and 1. FC Heidenheim drew 1–1.

Shots
149
Shots on target
52
Expected goals
0.90.97
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FC Köln and 1. FC Heidenheim drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (1. FC Köln – 1. FC Heidenheim): shots 14–9, shots on target 5–2, expected goals 0.9–0.97, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.65 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.65 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Heidenheim have a visible away split

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.44 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.44 shots/match11.6 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.35 corners/matchCorners1. FC Köln · 1. FC Heidenheim● 5.76 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric1. FC Köln1. FC HeidenheimBaseline
Corners5.35 corners/match5.76 corners/match4.63 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots9 shots1. FC Köln 14 shots, 1. FC Heidenheim 9 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots2 shots1. FC Köln 5 shots, 1. FC Heidenheim 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.9 xG0.97 xG1. FC Köln 0.9 xG, 1. FC Heidenheim 0.97 xG
  • Possession51%49%1. FC Köln 51%, 1. FC Heidenheim 49%
  • Corners9 corners6 corners1. FC Köln 9 corners, 1. FC Heidenheim 6 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls11 fouls1. FC Köln 12 fouls, 1. FC Heidenheim 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jan Uwe Thielmann · 1. FC Köln · 80′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMarvin Pieringer · 1. FC Heidenheim · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDavie Selke · 1. FC Köln · 14′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDenis Huseinbašić · 1. FC Köln · 19′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMarnon Busch · 1. FC Heidenheim · 42′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJustin Diehl · 1. FC Köln · 87′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJustin Diehl · 1. FC Köln · 70′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFaride Alidou · 1. FC Köln · 85′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEric Martel · 1. FC Köln · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJan-Niklas Beste · 1. FC Heidenheim · 68′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDavie Selke · 1. FC Köln · 20′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAdrian Beck · 1. FC Heidenheim · 55′ · 0.06 xG · goalJan Uwe Thielmann · 1. FC Köln · 59′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJan Uwe Thielmann · 1. FC Köln · 26′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedEren Dinkçi · 1. FC Heidenheim · 34′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedEren Dinkçi · 1. FC Heidenheim · 66′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFaride Alidou · 1. FC Köln · 72′ · 0.07 xG · on targetDavie Selke · 1. FC Köln · 47′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLinton Maina · 1. FC Köln · 46′ · 0.14 xG · on targetNorman Theuerkauf · 1. FC Heidenheim · 34′ · 0.16 xG · on targetTim Kleindienst · 1. FC Heidenheim · 68′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedDavie Selke · 1. FC Köln · 29′ · 0.21 xG · goalTim Kleindienst · 1. FC Heidenheim · 51′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Köln: 14 shots, 5 on target, 0.93 xG. 1. FC Heidenheim: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.96 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Davie Selke · 1. FC Köln · 29′Adrian Beck · 1. FC Heidenheim · 55′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Köln 0.93 xG · 1. FC Heidenheim 0.96 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Köln favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FC Heidenheim in 5 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Köln17 matches1. FC Heidenheim17 matches
0.65 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲ 1.53 goals/match
1.71 goals/match ▲Goals allowed17/171.94 goals/match
1.12 xG/matchExpected goals17/17▲ 1.26 xG/match
12.4 shots/match ▲Shots17/1711.6 shots/match
4.59 shots/match ▲Shots on target17/173.59 shots/match
47.4% ●Possession17/1742.1%
5.35 corners/matchCorners17/17● 5.76 corners/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls17/1713.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Jan 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC Köln1. FC Heidenheim
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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