PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

1. FSV Mainz 05 1–1 VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FSV Mainz 05 and VfL Wolfsburg drew 1–1.

Shots
119
Shots on target
24
Expected goals
0.420.56
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FSV Mainz 05 and VfL Wolfsburg drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (1. FSV Mainz 05 – VfL Wolfsburg): shots 11–9, shots on target 2–4, expected goals 0.42–0.56, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.82 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.82 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

VfL Wolfsburg show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

VfL Wolfsburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.9 shots/match ▲Shots1. FSV Mainz 05 · VfL Wolfsburg11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FSV Mainz 05VfL WolfsburgBaseline
Shots12.9 shots/match11.9 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against11.4 shots/match14.1 shots/match14.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

14.5 fouls/matchFouls1. FSV Mainz 05 · VfL Wolfsburg12.9 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric1. FSV Mainz 05VfL WolfsburgBaseline
Fouls14.5 fouls/match12.9 fouls/match11.4 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots9 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 11 shots, VfL Wolfsburg 9 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots4 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 2 shots, VfL Wolfsburg 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.42 xG0.56 xG1. FSV Mainz 05 0.42 xG, VfL Wolfsburg 0.56 xG
  • Possession52%48%1. FSV Mainz 05 52%, VfL Wolfsburg 48%
  • Corners7 corners3 corners1. FSV Mainz 05 7 corners, VfL Wolfsburg 3 corners
  • Fouls21 fouls16 fouls1. FSV Mainz 05 21 fouls, VfL Wolfsburg 16 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Tom Krauß · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 51′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSebastiaan Bornauw · VfL Wolfsburg · 89′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 18′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKarim Onisiwo · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 44′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJakub Kamiński · VfL Wolfsburg · 55′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoakim Mæhle · VfL Wolfsburg · 50′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSilvan Widmer · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 61′ · 0.03 xG · goalDominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 70′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 87′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 18′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMerveille Papela · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTom Krauß · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 76′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 39′ · 0.06 xG · on targetLovro Majer · VfL Wolfsburg · 42′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSebastiaan Bornauw · VfL Wolfsburg · 88′ · 0.09 xG · on targetSilvan Widmer · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 9′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedVáclav Černý · VfL Wolfsburg · 12′ · 0.12 xG · goalJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 56′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FSV Mainz 05: 11 shots, 2 on target, 0.42 xG. VfL Wolfsburg: 9 shots, 4 on target, 0.56 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Silvan Widmer · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 61′Václav Černý · VfL Wolfsburg · 12′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.42 xG · VfL Wolfsburg 0.56 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

11. FSV Mainz 05
0Draws
3VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga3–0
1. FSV Mainz 05 — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga0–3
VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga5–0
1. FSV Mainz 05 — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FSV Mainz 05 favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 4 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FSV Mainz 0517 matchesVfL Wolfsburg17 matches
0.82 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲ 1.24 goals/match
1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed17/171.65 goals/match
1.09 xG/matchExpected goals17/17▲ 1.2 xG/match
12.9 shots/match ▲Shots17/1711.9 shots/match
3.82 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲ 4.71 shots/match
47%Possession17/17● 48.3%
4.94 corners/match ●Corners17/173.82 corners/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls17/1712.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Jan 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FSV Mainz 05VfL Wolfsburg
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-head1. FSV Mainz 05 — VfL Wolfsburg
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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