PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

FC Bayern München 1–0 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 1–0.

Shots
224
Shots on target
101
Expected goals
2.080.25
Possession
72%28%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Bayern München beat 1. FC Union Berlin 1–0. Recorded in this match (FC Bayern München – 1. FC Union Berlin): shots 22–4, shots on target 10–1, expected goals 2.08–0.25, possession 72%–28%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Bayern München's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Bayern München's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.94 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match2.94 goals/match1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for FC Bayern München.

3.21 days ▲Rest daysFC Bayern München · 1. FC Union Berlin11.2 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricFC Bayern München1. FC Union BerlinBaseline
Rest days3.21 days11.2 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches1 match—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

1. FC Union Berlin show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

1. FC Union Berlin's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

20.4 shots/match ▲ShotsFC Bayern München · 1. FC Union Berlin11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC Bayern München1. FC Union BerlinBaseline
Shots20.4 shots/match11.4 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against8.33 shots/match13.2 shots/match14.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots22 shots4 shotsFC Bayern München 22 shots, 1. FC Union Berlin 4 shots
  • Shots on target10 shots1 shotFC Bayern München 10 shots, 1. FC Union Berlin 1 shot
  • Expected goals2.08 xG0.25 xGFC Bayern München 2.08 xG, 1. FC Union Berlin 0.25 xG
  • Possession72%28%FC Bayern München 72%, 1. FC Union Berlin 28%
  • Corners12 corners1 cornerFC Bayern München 12 corners, 1. FC Union Berlin 1 corner
  • Fouls5 fouls9 foulsFC Bayern München 5 fouls, 1. FC Union Berlin 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Robin Gosens · 1. FC Union Berlin · 1′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 27′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 32′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKonrad Laimer · FC Bayern München · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKingsley Coman · FC Bayern München · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 66′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKingsley Coman · FC Bayern München · 11′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 3′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 30′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRaphaël Guerreiro · FC Bayern München · 34′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJanik Haberer · 1. FC Union Berlin · 43′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 84′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKonrad Laimer · FC Bayern München · 12′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKevin Behrens · 1. FC Union Berlin · 51′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKingsley Coman · FC Bayern München · 23′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 81′ · 0.09 xG · on targetMatthijs de Ligt · FC Bayern München · 18′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJérôme Roussillon · 1. FC Union Berlin · 72′ · 0.13 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 46′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMatthijs de Ligt · FC Bayern München · 6′ · 0.18 xG · on targetRaphaël Guerreiro · FC Bayern München · 46′ · 0.22 xG · goalDayot Upamecano · FC Bayern München · 6′ · 0.23 xG · on targetThomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 85′ · 0.27 xG · on targetJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.31 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Bayern München: 22 shots, 10 on target, 2.16 xG. 1. FC Union Berlin: 4 shots, 1 on target, 0.26 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Raphaël Guerreiro · FC Bayern München · 46′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Bayern München 2.16 xG · 1. FC Union Berlin 0.26 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3FC Bayern München
1Draws
01. FC Union Berlin
FC Bayern München — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga3–0
1. FC Union Berlin — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–1
FC Bayern München — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga4–0
1. FC Union Berlin — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga2–5

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Bayern München favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FC Union Berlin in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Bayern München18 matches1. FC Union Berlin17 matches
2.94 goals/match ▲Goals scored18/171 goal/match
0.89 goals/match ▲Goals allowed18/171.88 goals/match
2.84 xG/match ▲Expected goals18/171.14 xG/match
20.4 shots/match ▲Shots18/1711.4 shots/match
8.22 shots/match ▲Shots on target18/174.24 shots/match
62.1% ●Possession18/1742.9%
7.94 corners/match ●Corners18/174.71 corners/match
9.5 fouls/matchFouls18/1711.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 24 Jan 2024, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC Bayern München1. FC Union Berlin
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headFC Bayern München — 1. FC Union Berlin
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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