PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

VfL Wolfsburg and 1. FC Köln drew 1–1.

Shots
146
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
1.530.59
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfL Wolfsburg and 1. FC Köln drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (VfL Wolfsburg – 1. FC Köln): shots 14–6, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 1.53–0.59, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.63 goals/match1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Köln have a visible away split

moderate

1. FC Köln's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.7 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.7 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots6 shotsVfL Wolfsburg 14 shots, 1. FC Köln 6 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shotsVfL Wolfsburg 4 shots, 1. FC Köln 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.53 xG0.59 xGVfL Wolfsburg 1.53 xG, 1. FC Köln 0.59 xG
  • Possession52%48%VfL Wolfsburg 52%, 1. FC Köln 48%
  • Corners6 corners3 cornersVfL Wolfsburg 6 corners, 1. FC Köln 3 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls12 foulsVfL Wolfsburg 17 fouls, 1. FC Köln 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Tiago Tomás · VfL Wolfsburg · 88′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMax Finkgrafe · 1. FC Köln · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBenno Schmitz · 1. FC Köln · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMoritz Jenz · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJan Uwe Thielmann · 1. FC Köln · 82′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 29′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTiago Tomás · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMoritz Jenz · VfL Wolfsburg · 78′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedTiago Tomás · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetMoritz Jenz · VfL Wolfsburg · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 66′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFaride Alidou · 1. FC Köln · 38′ · 0.10 xG · goalTiago Tomás · VfL Wolfsburg · 88′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 11′ · 0.12 xG · on targetMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 2′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJan Uwe Thielmann · 1. FC Köln · 7′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedLinton Maina · 1. FC Köln · 66′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedKevin Paredes · VfL Wolfsburg · 89′ · 0.24 xG · on targetKevin Paredes · VfL Wolfsburg · 40′ · 0.41 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfL Wolfsburg: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.54 xG. 1. FC Köln: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.59 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Kevin Paredes · VfL Wolfsburg · 40′Faride Alidou · 1. FC Köln · 38′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfL Wolfsburg 1.54 xG · 1. FC Köln 0.59 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3VfL Wolfsburg
0Draws
21. FC Köln
1. FC Köln — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga1–2
1. FC Köln — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga0–2
VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga2–4
1. FC Köln — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga0–1
VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga2–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfL Wolfsburg favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FC Köln in 0 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfL Wolfsburg19 matches1. FC Köln19 matches
1.21 goals/match ▲Goals scored19/190.63 goals/match
1.58 goals/match ▲Goals allowed19/191.79 goals/match
1.21 xG/match ▲Expected goals19/191.1 xG/match
12.1 shots/matchShots19/1912.4 shots/match
4.58 shots/matchShots on target19/194.47 shots/match
48.5% ●Possession19/1947%
3.84 corners/matchCorners19/19● 5.63 corners/match
13 fouls/matchFouls19/1911.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Jan 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfL Wolfsburg1. FC Köln
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headVfL Wolfsburg — 1. FC Köln
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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