PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

FC Augsburg 2–3 FC Bayern München · Bundesliga

2–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 2–3.

Shots
1513
Shots on target
74
Expected goals
2.612.33
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Bayern München beat FC Augsburg 3–2. Recorded in this match (FC Augsburg – FC Bayern München): shots 15–13, shots on target 7–4, expected goals 2.61–2.33, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Bayern München's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Bayern München's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.95 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match2.95 goals/match1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12 shots/match ▲ShotsFC Augsburg · FC Bayern München20.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC AugsburgFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Shots12 shots/match20.1 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against15.8 shots/match8.68 shots/match14.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for FC Bayern München.

5.92 days ▲Rest daysFC Augsburg · FC Bayern München2.79 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricFC AugsburgFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Rest days5.92 days2.79 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots13 shotsFC Augsburg 15 shots, FC Bayern München 13 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots4 shotsFC Augsburg 7 shots, FC Bayern München 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.61 xG2.33 xGFC Augsburg 2.61 xG, FC Bayern München 2.33 xG
  • Possession41%59%FC Augsburg 41%, FC Bayern München 59%
  • Corners4 corners5 cornersFC Augsburg 4 corners, FC Bayern München 5 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls11 foulsFC Augsburg 12 fouls, FC Bayern München 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Rubén Vargas · FC Augsburg · 8′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMathys Tel · FC Bayern München · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedErmedin Demirović · FC Augsburg · 3′ · 0.03 xG · on targetElvis Rexhbeçaj · FC Augsburg · 31′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKristijan Jakić · FC Augsburg · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRubén Vargas · FC Augsburg · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFelix Uduokhai · FC Augsburg · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 82′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKingsley Coman · FC Bayern München · 3′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFredrik Jensen · FC Augsburg · 8′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRaphaël Guerreiro · FC Bayern München · 27′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 57′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRubén Vargas · FC Augsburg · 76′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlphonso Davies · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.05 xG · goalErmedin Demirović · FC Augsburg · 52′ · 0.05 xG · goalFredrik Jensen · FC Augsburg · 58′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 82′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMathys Tel · FC Bayern München · 42′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRubén Vargas · FC Augsburg · 7′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 14′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedErmedin Demirović · FC Augsburg · 15′ · 0.17 xG · on targetDion Drena Beljo · FC Augsburg · 67′ · 0.44 xG · on targetAleksandar Pavlović · FC Bayern München · 23′ · 0.51 xG · goalMathys Tel · FC Bayern München · 81′ · 0.53 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 58′ · 0.75 xG · goalSven Michel · FC Augsburg · 88′ · 0.82 xG · on targetErmedin Demirović · FC Augsburg · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Augsburg: 15 shots, 7 on target, 2.69 xG. FC Bayern München: 13 shots, 4 on target, 2.33 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Ermedin Demirović · FC Augsburg · 52′Ermedin Demirović · FC Augsburg · 90′Aleksandar Pavlović · FC Bayern München · 23′Alphonso Davies · FC Bayern München · 45′Harry Kane · FC Bayern München · 58′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Augsburg 2.69 xG · FC Bayern München 2.33 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2FC Augsburg
0Draws
3FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München — FC Augsburg · Bundesliga3–1
FC Bayern München — FC Augsburg · Bundesliga5–3
FC Augsburg — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–0
FC Bayern München — FC Augsburg · Bundesliga1–0
FC Augsburg — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Augsburg favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Augsburg19 matchesFC Bayern München19 matches
1.47 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲ 2.95 goals/match
1.89 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲ 0.95 goals/match
1.42 xG/matchExpected goals19/19▲ 2.82 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots19/19▲ 20.1 shots/match
3.89 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲ 8 shots/match
40.6%Possession19/19● 61.9%
3.84 corners/matchCorners19/19● 7.79 corners/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls19/199.58 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Jan 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC AugsburgFC Bayern München
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headFC Augsburg — FC Bayern München
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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