PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund drew 1–1.

Shots
1112
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
1.851.4
Possession
36%64%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (VfL Wolfsburg – Borussia Dortmund): shots 11–12, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 1.85–1.4, possession 36%–64%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Borussia Dortmund have a visible away split

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12.5 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season15.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.5 shots/match15.4 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

weak

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.18 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.18 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Borussia Dortmund have recorded the higher season possession share.

48.2%PossessionVfL Wolfsburg · Borussia Dortmund● 58%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVfL WolfsburgBorussia DortmundBaseline
Possession48.2%58%47.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots12 shotsVfL Wolfsburg 11 shots, Borussia Dortmund 12 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shotsVfL Wolfsburg 4 shots, Borussia Dortmund 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.85 xG1.4 xGVfL Wolfsburg 1.85 xG, Borussia Dortmund 1.4 xG
  • Possession36%64%VfL Wolfsburg 36%, Borussia Dortmund 64%
  • Corners5 corners3 cornersVfL Wolfsburg 5 corners, Borussia Dortmund 3 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls5 foulsVfL Wolfsburg 18 fouls, Borussia Dortmund 5 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Kevin Behrens · VfL Wolfsburg · 4′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLovro Majer · VfL Wolfsburg · 27′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Arnold · VfL Wolfsburg · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJulian Ryerson · Borussia Dortmund · 22′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMarcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetIan Maatsen · Borussia Dortmund · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRidle Baku · VfL Wolfsburg · 62′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLovro Majer · VfL Wolfsburg · 86′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund · 31′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSalih Özcan · Borussia Dortmund · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarco Reus · Borussia Dortmund · 8′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMarcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund · 89′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLovro Majer · VfL Wolfsburg · 4′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMarco Reus · Borussia Dortmund · 26′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMarcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund · 48′ · 0.12 xG · on targetJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 62′ · 0.16 xG · on targetKevin Behrens · VfL Wolfsburg · 45′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedKevin Paredes · VfL Wolfsburg · 27′ · 0.43 xG · off target or blockedYannick Gerhardt · VfL Wolfsburg · 63′ · 0.44 xG · goalKevin Behrens · VfL Wolfsburg · 45′ · 0.46 xG · on targetNiclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 8′ · 0.85 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfL Wolfsburg: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.90 xG. Borussia Dortmund: 12 shots, 5 on target, 1.43 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Yannick Gerhardt · VfL Wolfsburg · 63′Niclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 8′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfL Wolfsburg 1.90 xG · Borussia Dortmund 1.43 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1VfL Wolfsburg
0Draws
4Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga1–0
Borussia Dortmund — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga6–0
VfL Wolfsburg — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga2–0
Borussia Dortmund — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga6–1
VfL Wolfsburg — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga1–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfL Wolfsburg favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Borussia Dortmund in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfL Wolfsburg22 matchesBorussia Dortmund22 matches
1.18 goals/matchGoals scored22/22▲ 2 goals/match
1.55 goals/matchGoals allowed22/22▲ 1.23 goals/match
1.27 xG/matchExpected goals22/22▲ 1.99 xG/match
12.4 shots/matchShots22/22▲ 15.4 shots/match
4.64 shots/matchShots on target22/22▲ 5.5 shots/match
48.2%Possession22/22● 58%
4.32 corners/matchCorners22/22● 4.82 corners/match
13 fouls/matchFouls22/2210 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Feb 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfL WolfsburgBorussia Dortmund
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headVfL Wolfsburg — Borussia Dortmund
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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