PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2023

PSV Eindhoven 1–1 Borussia Dortmund · UEFA Champions League

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

PSV Eindhoven and Borussia Dortmund drew 1–1.

Shots
148
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
1.580.86
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

PSV Eindhoven and Borussia Dortmund drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (PSV Eindhoven – Borussia Dortmund): shots 14–8, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 1.58–0.86, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Borussia Dortmund's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.14 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

PSV Eindhoven show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

PSV Eindhoven's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.3 shots/match ▲ShotsPSV Eindhoven · Borussia Dortmund13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricPSV EindhovenBorussia DortmundBaseline
Shots17.3 shots/match13.1 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against12.2 shots/match14.6 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

PSV Eindhoven have recorded the higher season possession share.

56.7% ●PossessionPSV Eindhoven · Borussia Dortmund43.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricPSV EindhovenBorussia DortmundBaseline
Possession56.7%43.9%49%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots8 shotsPSV Eindhoven 14 shots, Borussia Dortmund 8 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shotsPSV Eindhoven 4 shots, Borussia Dortmund 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.58 xG0.86 xGPSV Eindhoven 1.58 xG, Borussia Dortmund 0.86 xG
  • Possession55%45%PSV Eindhoven 55%, Borussia Dortmund 45%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersPSV Eindhoven 4 corners, Borussia Dortmund 4 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls15 foulsPSV Eindhoven 8 fouls, Borussia Dortmund 15 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Johan Bakayoko · PSV Eindhoven · 11′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJoey Veerman · PSV Eindhoven · 29′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLuuk de Jong · PSV Eindhoven · 43′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDonyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund · 17′ · 0.02 xG · on targetHirving Lozano · PSV Eindhoven · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoey Veerman · PSV Eindhoven · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDonyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund · 24′ · 0.04 xG · goalJoey Veerman · PSV Eindhoven · 49′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHirving Lozano · PSV Eindhoven · 65′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJohan Bakayoko · PSV Eindhoven · 75′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDonyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund · 59′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSergiño Dest · PSV Eindhoven · 81′ · 0.07 xG · on targetIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 39′ · 0.09 xG · on targetIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 62′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMarius Wolf · Borussia Dortmund · 72′ · 0.09 xG · on targetDonyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund · 15′ · 0.10 xG · on targetMalik Tillman · PSV Eindhoven · 16′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedNiclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 18′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedNico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund · 20′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedJohan Bakayoko · PSV Eindhoven · 37′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedDonyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund · 61′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedLuuk de Jong · PSV Eindhoven · 56′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

PSV Eindhoven: 14 shots, 4 on target, 1.61 xG. Borussia Dortmund: 8 shots, 5 on target, 0.86 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Luuk de Jong · PSV Eindhoven · 56′Donyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund · 24′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: PSV Eindhoven 1.61 xG · Borussia Dortmund 0.86 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: PSV Eindhoven favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Borussia Dortmund in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

PSV Eindhoven11 matchesBorussia Dortmund7 matches
2.09 goals/match ▲Goals scored11/71.14 goals/match
1.45 goals/matchGoals allowed11/7▲ 0.71 goals/match
1.37 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/71.26 xG/match
17.3 shots/match ▲Shots11/713.1 shots/match
6.64 shots/match ▲Shots on target11/74.57 shots/match
56.7% ●Possession11/743.9%
5.36 corners/matchCorners11/7● 5.43 corners/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls11/711.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples11 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 21 Feb 2024, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPSV EindhovenBorussia Dortmund
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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