PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

1. FC Union Berlin 1–0 VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Union Berlin won 1–0.

Shots
817
Shots on target
14
Expected goals
0.51.32
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FC Union Berlin beat VfL Wolfsburg 1–0. Recorded in this match (1. FC Union Berlin – VfL Wolfsburg): shots 8–17, shots on target 1–4, expected goals 0.5–1.32, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Union Berlin's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Union Berlin's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.95 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.95 goals/match1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for 1. FC Union Berlin.

2.88 days ▲Rest days1. FC Union Berlin · VfL Wolfsburg6 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric1. FC Union BerlinVfL WolfsburgBaseline
Rest days2.88 days6 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots17 shots1. FC Union Berlin 8 shots, VfL Wolfsburg 17 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot4 shots1. FC Union Berlin 1 shot, VfL Wolfsburg 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.5 xG1.32 xG1. FC Union Berlin 0.5 xG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.32 xG
  • Possession41%59%1. FC Union Berlin 41%, VfL Wolfsburg 59%
  • Corners6 corners10 corners1. FC Union Berlin 6 corners, VfL Wolfsburg 10 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls10 fouls1. FC Union Berlin 12 fouls, VfL Wolfsburg 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Aissa Laïdouni · 1. FC Union Berlin · 68′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRidle Baku · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Arnold · VfL Wolfsburg · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Arnold · VfL Wolfsburg · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCedric Zesiger · VfL Wolfsburg · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVáclav Černý · VfL Wolfsburg · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRogério · VfL Wolfsburg · 3′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLucas Tousart · 1. FC Union Berlin · 24′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBenedict Hollerbach · 1. FC Union Berlin · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 64′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 6′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAndrás Schäfer · 1. FC Union Berlin · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 25′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 73′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Arnold · VfL Wolfsburg · 87′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRobin Gosens · 1. FC Union Berlin · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKevin Behrens · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLucas Tousart · 1. FC Union Berlin · 46′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMaxence Lacroix · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.09 xG · on targetDanilho Doekhi · 1. FC Union Berlin · 45′ · 0.10 xG · goalKevin Volland · 1. FC Union Berlin · 8′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLovro Majer · VfL Wolfsburg · 54′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedMattias Svanberg · VfL Wolfsburg · 45′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 40′ · 0.28 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Union Berlin: 8 shots, 1 on target, 0.53 xG. VfL Wolfsburg: 17 shots, 4 on target, 1.27 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Danilho Doekhi · 1. FC Union Berlin · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Union Berlin 0.53 xG · VfL Wolfsburg 1.27 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

21. FC Union Berlin
1Draws
2VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga2–1
VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga1–1
1. FC Union Berlin — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga2–0
VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga1–0
1. FC Union Berlin — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Union Berlin favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 7 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Union Berlin21 matchesVfL Wolfsburg21 matches
0.95 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲ 1.19 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲ 1.57 goals/match
1.14 xG/matchExpected goals21/21▲ 1.24 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShots21/2112.4 shots/match
4.05 shots/matchShots on target21/21▲ 4.67 shots/match
43.3%Possession21/21● 48.8%
4.62 corners/match ●Corners21/214.29 corners/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls21/2112.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Feb 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC Union BerlinVfL Wolfsburg
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-head1. FC Union Berlin — VfL Wolfsburg
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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