PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

FC Augsburg 1–0 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Augsburg won 1–0.

Shots
76
Shots on target
31
Expected goals
0.540.38
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Augsburg beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1–0. Recorded in this match (FC Augsburg – 1. FC Heidenheim): shots 7–6, shots on target 3–1, expected goals 0.54–0.38, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Augsburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Augsburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.6 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.6 goals/match1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Heidenheim have a visible away split

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9 shots/match11.4 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13.1 fouls/matchFoulsFC Augsburg · 1. FC Heidenheim13.4 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricFC Augsburg1. FC HeidenheimBaseline
Fouls13.1 fouls/match13.4 fouls/match11.2 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots6 shotsFC Augsburg 7 shots, 1. FC Heidenheim 6 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots1 shotFC Augsburg 3 shots, 1. FC Heidenheim 1 shot
  • Expected goals0.54 xG0.38 xGFC Augsburg 0.54 xG, 1. FC Heidenheim 0.38 xG
  • Possession58%42%FC Augsburg 58%, 1. FC Heidenheim 42%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersFC Augsburg 5 corners, 1. FC Heidenheim 2 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls20 foulsFC Augsburg 14 fouls, 1. FC Heidenheim 20 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Nikola Dovedan · 1. FC Heidenheim · 54′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKevin Mbabu · FC Augsburg · 1′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJan-Niklas Beste · 1. FC Heidenheim · 10′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPhillip Tietz · FC Augsburg · 84′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedErmedin Demirović · FC Augsburg · 85′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNikola Dovedan · 1. FC Heidenheim · 61′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Pieringer · 1. FC Heidenheim · 7′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRubén Vargas · FC Augsburg · 32′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedArne Engels · FC Augsburg · 75′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Pick · 1. FC Heidenheim · 81′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedEren Dinkçi · 1. FC Heidenheim · 82′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJeffrey Gouweleeuw · FC Augsburg · 22′ · 0.15 xG · goalIago Borduchi · FC Augsburg · 67′ · 0.20 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Augsburg: 7 shots, 3 on target, 0.56 xG. 1. FC Heidenheim: 6 shots, 1 on target, 0.37 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Jeffrey Gouweleeuw · FC Augsburg · 22′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Augsburg 0.56 xG · 1. FC Heidenheim 0.37 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1FC Augsburg
0Draws
01. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Heidenheim — FC Augsburg · Bundesliga2–5

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Augsburg favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FC Heidenheim in 2 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Augsburg25 matches1. FC Heidenheim25 matches
1.6 goals/match ▲Goals scored25/251.36 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowed25/251.72 goals/match
1.42 xG/match ▲Expected goals25/251.18 xG/match
12.4 shots/match ▲Shots25/2511.4 shots/match
4.08 shots/match ▲Shots on target25/253.24 shots/match
43.8% ●Possession25/2541.8%
4.28 corners/matchCorners25/25● 5.44 corners/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls25/2513.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 9 Mar 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC Augsburg1. FC Heidenheim
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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