PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

SC Freiburg 1–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

SC Freiburg and 1. FSV Mainz 05 drew 1–1.

Shots
616
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
1.121.06
Possession
40%60%

Full time

What the match recorded

SC Freiburg and 1. FSV Mainz 05 drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (SC Freiburg – 1. FSV Mainz 05): shots 6–16, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 1.12–1.06, possession 40%–60%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.03 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.03 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

SC Freiburg have a visible home split

moderate

SC Freiburg's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.1 shots/match11.6 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

SC Freiburg show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

SC Freiburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.6 shots/match ▲ShotsSC Freiburg · 1. FSV Mainz 0514.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSC Freiburg1. FSV Mainz 05Baseline
Shots11.6 shots/match14.3 shots/match13.1 shots/match
Shots against15.2 shots/match11.9 shots/match14.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots6 shots16 shotsSC Freiburg 6 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 16 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsSC Freiburg 3 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.12 xG1.06 xGSC Freiburg 1.12 xG, 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.06 xG
  • Possession40%60%SC Freiburg 40%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 60%
  • Corners2 corners4 cornersSC Freiburg 2 corners, 1. FSV Mainz 05 4 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls15 foulsSC Freiburg 17 fouls, 1. FSV Mainz 05 15 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Leandro Barreiro · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 19′ · 0.01 xG · on targetNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 27′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLukas Kübler · SC Freiburg · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTom Krauß · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 19′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMichael Gregoritsch · SC Freiburg · 82′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 86′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 17′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 24′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 20′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedBrajan Gruda · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 39′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Hanche Olsen · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 17′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 33′ · 0.08 xG · on targetJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 43′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMichael Gregoritsch · SC Freiburg · 66′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMichael Gregoritsch · SC Freiburg · 58′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedBrajan Gruda · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 44′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 40′ · 0.14 xG · goalJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 67′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMichael Gregoritsch · SC Freiburg · 6′ · 0.35 xG · goalMichael Gregoritsch · SC Freiburg · 29′ · 0.53 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

SC Freiburg: 6 shots, 3 on target, 1.15 xG. 1. FSV Mainz 05: 16 shots, 3 on target, 1.07 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Michael Gregoritsch · SC Freiburg · 6′Jonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 40′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: SC Freiburg 1.15 xG · 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.07 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2SC Freiburg
3Draws
01. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05 — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga0–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga1–1
SC Freiburg — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga2–1
SC Freiburg — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: SC Freiburg favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 6

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

SC Freiburg30 matches1. FSV Mainz 0530 matches
1.4 goals/match ▲Goals scored30/301.03 goals/match
1.77 goals/matchGoals allowed30/30▲ 1.6 goals/match
1.48 xG/match ▲Expected goals30/301.27 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots30/30▲ 14.3 shots/match
4.43 shots/match ▲Shots on target30/304.13 shots/match
45.5%Possession30/30● 46.6%
3.83 corners/matchCorners30/30● 5.47 corners/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls30/3014 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Apr 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSC Freiburg1. FSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headSC Freiburg — 1. FSV Mainz 05
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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