PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

1. FSV Mainz 05 1–1 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FSV Mainz 05 and 1. FC Köln drew 1–1.

Shots
1617
Shots on target
46
Expected goals
1.572.55
Possession
39%61%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FSV Mainz 05 and 1. FC Köln drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (1. FSV Mainz 05 – 1. FC Köln): shots 16–17, shots on target 4–6, expected goals 1.57–2.55, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.03 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.03 goals/match1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Köln have a visible away split

moderate

1. FC Köln's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.4 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match12.5 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots17 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 16 shots, 1. FC Köln 17 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots6 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 4 shots, 1. FC Köln 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.57 xG2.55 xG1. FSV Mainz 05 1.57 xG, 1. FC Köln 2.55 xG
  • Possession39%61%1. FSV Mainz 05 39%, 1. FC Köln 61%
  • Corners6 corners6 corners1. FSV Mainz 05 6 corners, 1. FC Köln 6 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls13 fouls1. FSV Mainz 05 17 fouls, 1. FC Köln 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Leandro Barreiro · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 80′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMark Uth · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.01 xG · on targetDenis Huseinbašić · 1. FC Köln · 12′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKarim Onisiwo · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 3′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFaride Alidou · 1. FC Köln · 44′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Barreiro · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSepp van den Berg · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 67′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLinton Maina · 1. FC Köln · 71′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Kainz · 1. FC Köln · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSilvan Widmer · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 80′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBrajan Gruda · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 84′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDenis Huseinbašić · 1. FC Köln · 15′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKarim Onisiwo · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 29′ · 0.04 xG · on targetSteffen Tigges · 1. FC Köln · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTimo Hübers · 1. FC Köln · 74′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJeff Chabot · 1. FC Köln · 81′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Barreiro · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 14′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 51′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEric Martel · 1. FC Köln · 81′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 72′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBenno Schmitz · 1. FC Köln · 73′ · 0.06 xG · on targetFaride Alidou · 1. FC Köln · 77′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJan Uwe Thielmann · 1. FC Köln · 33′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 14′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSargis Adamyan · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.10 xG · on targetSepp van den Berg · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 31′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedSepp van den Berg · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 20′ · 0.13 xG · on targetLeandro Barreiro · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 29′ · 0.26 xG · goalMark Uth · 1. FC Köln · 85′ · 0.32 xG · on targetJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 33′ · 0.60 xG · off target or blockedLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 48′ · 0.82 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Kainz · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FSV Mainz 05: 16 shots, 4 on target, 1.59 xG. 1. FC Köln: 17 shots, 6 on target, 2.60 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Leandro Barreiro · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 29′Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.59 xG · 1. FC Köln 2.60 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

11. FSV Mainz 05
3Draws
11. FC Köln
1. FC Köln — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga0–0
1. FC Köln — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga5–0
1. FC Köln — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga3–2
1. FSV Mainz 05 — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FSV Mainz 05 favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FC Köln in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FSV Mainz 0531 matches1. FC Köln31 matches
1.03 goals/match ▲Goals scored31/310.77 goals/match
1.58 goals/match ▲Goals allowed31/311.74 goals/match
1.28 xG/match ▲Expected goals31/311.09 xG/match
14.4 shots/match ▲Shots31/3112.5 shots/match
4.13 shots/matchShots on target31/314.19 shots/match
46.4% ●Possession31/3145.4%
5.48 corners/match ●Corners31/315.26 corners/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls31/3112 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples31 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 28 Apr 2024, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FSV Mainz 051. FC Köln
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-head1. FSV Mainz 05 — 1. FC Köln
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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