PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

RB Leipzig 4–1 Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

4–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

RB Leipzig won 4–1.

Shots
2112
Shots on target
75
Expected goals
2.611.67
Possession
39%61%

Full time

What the match recorded

RB Leipzig beat Borussia Dortmund 4–1. Recorded in this match (RB Leipzig – Borussia Dortmund): shots 21–12, shots on target 7–5, expected goals 2.61–1.67, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Borussia Dortmund's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.9 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.9 goals/match1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Borussia Dortmund have a visible away split

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12.4 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.4 shots/match14.9 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots12 shotsRB Leipzig 21 shots, Borussia Dortmund 12 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots5 shotsRB Leipzig 7 shots, Borussia Dortmund 5 shots
  • Expected goals2.61 xG1.67 xGRB Leipzig 2.61 xG, Borussia Dortmund 1.67 xG
  • Possession39%61%RB Leipzig 39%, Borussia Dortmund 61%
  • Corners5 corners8 cornersRB Leipzig 5 corners, Borussia Dortmund 8 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls8 foulsRB Leipzig 11 fouls, Borussia Dortmund 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jadon Sancho · Borussia Dortmund · 20′ · 0.02 xG · goalDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedXaver Schlager · RB Leipzig · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 61′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 18′ · 0.03 xG · on targetXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 36′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarco Reus · Borussia Dortmund · 65′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 65′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 88′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 6′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedXaver Schlager · RB Leipzig · 56′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNiclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 10′ · 0.05 xG · on targetXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 82′ · 0.05 xG · on targetDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 85′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 15′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 61′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFelix Nmecha · Borussia Dortmund · 66′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAmadou Haidara · RB Leipzig · 34′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 73′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedWilli Orbán · RB Leipzig · 75′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJulian Ryerson · Borussia Dortmund · 49′ · 0.12 xG · on targetLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 74′ · 0.12 xG · on targetLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 36′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 80′ · 0.30 xG · goalMohamed Simakan · RB Leipzig · 46′ · 0.43 xG · goalBenjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 45′ · 0.47 xG · goalNiclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 90′ · 0.51 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 23′ · 0.56 xG · goalNiclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 18′ · 0.70 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

RB Leipzig: 21 shots, 7 on target, 2.66 xG. Borussia Dortmund: 12 shots, 5 on target, 1.68 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 23′Benjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 45′Mohamed Simakan · RB Leipzig · 46′Christoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 80′Jadon Sancho · Borussia Dortmund · 20′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: RB Leipzig 2.66 xG · Borussia Dortmund 1.68 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4RB Leipzig
0Draws
1Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga2–3
Borussia Dortmund — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga2–1
RB Leipzig — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga3–0
Borussia Dortmund — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga1–4
RB Leipzig — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: RB Leipzig favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Borussia Dortmund in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

RB Leipzig31 matchesBorussia Dortmund31 matches
2.35 goals/match ▲Goals scored31/311.9 goals/match
1.13 goals/match ▲Goals allowed31/311.26 goals/match
2.03 xG/match ▲Expected goals31/311.86 xG/match
16.3 shots/match ▲Shots31/3114.9 shots/match
6.74 shots/match ▲Shots on target31/315.48 shots/match
56.4%Possession31/31● 57.5%
6.1 corners/match ●Corners31/315.19 corners/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls31/319.55 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples31 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRB LeipzigBorussia Dortmund
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headRB Leipzig — Borussia Dortmund
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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