PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2023

Borussia Dortmund 1–0 Paris Saint-Germain · UEFA Champions League

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Borussia Dortmund won 1–0.

Shots
1314
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
1.781.7
Possession
43%57%

Full time

What the match recorded

Borussia Dortmund beat Paris Saint-Germain 1–0. Recorded in this match (Borussia Dortmund – Paris Saint-Germain): shots 13–14, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 1.78–1.7, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Borussia Dortmund's recent record differs from the season

weak

Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.45 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.45 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris Saint-Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Paris Saint-Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.7 shots/match ▲ShotsBorussia Dortmund · Paris Saint-Germain16.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBorussia DortmundParis Saint-GermainBaseline
Shots13.7 shots/match16.7 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against14.3 shots/match11.5 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Paris Saint-Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

47.1%PossessionBorussia Dortmund · Paris Saint-Germain● 64%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBorussia DortmundParis Saint-GermainBaseline
Possession47.1%64%48.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots14 shotsBorussia Dortmund 13 shots, Paris Saint-Germain 14 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsBorussia Dortmund 4 shots, Paris Saint-Germain 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.78 xG1.7 xGBorussia Dortmund 1.78 xG, Paris Saint-Germain 1.7 xG
  • Possession43%57%Borussia Dortmund 43%, Paris Saint-Germain 57%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersBorussia Dortmund 4 corners, Paris Saint-Germain 3 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls6 foulsBorussia Dortmund 11 fouls, Paris Saint-Germain 6 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ousmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 11′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 48′ · 0.02 xG · on targetOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 18′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNiclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 58′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 51′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint-Germain · 51′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 51′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 29′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNiclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 51′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 59′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMarcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund · 45′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJadon Sancho · Borussia Dortmund · 75′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedWarren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint-Germain · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedWarren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint-Germain · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Paris Saint-Germain · 82′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain · 54′ · 0.11 xG · on targetNiclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 36′ · 0.14 xG · goalMarco Reus · Borussia Dortmund · 84′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedMarcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund · 14′ · 0.18 xG · on targetMarcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund · 44′ · 0.18 xG · on targetFabián Ruiz · Paris Saint-Germain · 87′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 84′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedNiclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 66′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 80′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedOusmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain · 72′ · 0.32 xG · on targetNiclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 60′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blockedFabián Ruiz · Paris Saint-Germain · 56′ · 0.39 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Borussia Dortmund: 13 shots, 4 on target, 1.77 xG. Paris Saint-Germain: 14 shots, 3 on target, 1.71 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Niclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 36′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Borussia Dortmund 1.77 xG · Paris Saint-Germain 1.71 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Borussia Dortmund
1Draws
1Paris Saint-Germain
Borussia Dortmund — Paris Saint-Germain · UEFA Champions League1–1
Paris Saint-Germain — Borussia Dortmund · UEFA Champions League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Borussia Dortmund favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Paris Saint-Germain in 8 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Borussia Dortmund11 matchesParis Saint-Germain11 matches
1.45 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲ 1.73 goals/match
0.82 goals/match ▲Goals allowed11/111.27 goals/match
1.32 xG/matchExpected goals11/11▲ 1.97 xG/match
13.7 shots/matchShots11/11▲ 16.7 shots/match
5.09 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲ 5.64 shots/match
47.1%Possession11/11● 64%
5.55 corners/matchCorners11/11● 6.91 corners/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1111.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 1 May 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBorussia DortmundParis Saint-Germain
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2023/24
Head-to-headBorussia Dortmund — Paris Saint-Germain
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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