PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

VfL Wolfsburg 1–3 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

1–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FSV Mainz 05 won 1–3.

Shots
1312
Shots on target
36
Expected goals
0.761.8
Possession
64%36%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FSV Mainz 05 beat VfL Wolfsburg 3–1. Recorded in this match (VfL Wolfsburg – 1. FSV Mainz 05): shots 13–12, shots on target 3–6, expected goals 0.76–1.8, possession 64%–36%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.15 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.15 goals/match1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FSV Mainz 05 have a visible away split

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12 shots/match14.1 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

VfL Wolfsburg show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

VfL Wolfsburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.2 shots/match ▲ShotsVfL Wolfsburg · 1. FSV Mainz 0514.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVfL Wolfsburg1. FSV Mainz 05Baseline
Shots12.2 shots/match14.1 shots/match13.3 shots/match
Shots against12.7 shots/match12.1 shots/match14.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots12 shotsVfL Wolfsburg 13 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 12 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots6 shotsVfL Wolfsburg 3 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.76 xG1.8 xGVfL Wolfsburg 0.76 xG, 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.8 xG
  • Possession64%36%VfL Wolfsburg 64%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 36%
  • Corners1 corner3 cornersVfL Wolfsburg 1 corner, 1. FSV Mainz 05 3 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls15 foulsVfL Wolfsburg 13 fouls, 1. FSV Mainz 05 15 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Maximilian Arnold · VfL Wolfsburg · 13′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 31′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCedric Zesiger · VfL Wolfsburg · 83′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Arnold · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLovro Majer · VfL Wolfsburg · 5′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 38′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 33′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLeandro Barreiro · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 42′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMaxence Lacroix · VfL Wolfsburg · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRidle Baku · VfL Wolfsburg · 13′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Arnold · VfL Wolfsburg · 23′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 35′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 26′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Wimmer · VfL Wolfsburg · 69′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 44′ · 0.06 xG · on targetBrajan Gruda · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 62′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 55′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedCedric Zesiger · VfL Wolfsburg · 80′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 3′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedSepp van den Berg · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 71′ · 0.19 xG · on targetKevin Paredes · VfL Wolfsburg · 18′ · 0.24 xG · goalSepp van den Berg · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 71′ · 0.36 xG · goalBrajan Gruda · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 24′ · 0.42 xG · goalJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 85′ · 0.53 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfL Wolfsburg: 13 shots, 3 on target, 0.75 xG. 1. FSV Mainz 05: 12 shots, 6 on target, 1.87 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Kevin Paredes · VfL Wolfsburg · 18′Brajan Gruda · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 24′Sepp van den Berg · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 71′Jonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 85′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfL Wolfsburg 0.75 xG · 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.87 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3VfL Wolfsburg
1Draws
11. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05 — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga1–1
VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga3–0
1. FSV Mainz 05 — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga0–3
VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga5–0
1. FSV Mainz 05 — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfL Wolfsburg favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 5 · 5 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfL Wolfsburg34 matches1. FSV Mainz 0534 matches
1.21 goals/matchGoals scored34/341.15 goals/match
1.65 goals/matchGoals allowed34/34▲ 1.5 goals/match
1.17 xG/matchExpected goals34/34▲ 1.33 xG/match
12.2 shots/matchShots34/34▲ 14.1 shots/match
4.44 shots/matchShots on target34/344.24 shots/match
48.1% ●Possession34/3445.9%
4.35 corners/matchCorners34/34● 5.29 corners/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls34/3413.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 May 2024, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfL Wolfsburg1. FSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headVfL Wolfsburg — 1. FSV Mainz 05
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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