Bundesliga · 2023Sat, 18 May 2024, 13:30 UTCFull timeHistorical match

VfL Wolfsburg

LWWWL

1–3Historical match

1. FSV Mainz 05

WDDDW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	VfL Wolfsburg	1. FSV Mainz 05
Shots	13 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.76 xG/match	1.8 xG/match▲
Possession	64%●	36%
Corners	1 corners/match	3 corners/match●
Fouls	13 fouls/match	15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

VfL Wolfsburg: 13 shots, 3 on target, 0.75 xG. 1. FSV Mainz 05: 12 shots, 6 on target, 1.87 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfL Wolfsburg 0.75 xG · 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.87 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1. FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: 1. FSV Mainz 05's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

1. FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.15 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.15 goals/match	1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FSV Mainz 05 have a visible away split

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season14.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	12 shots/match	14.1 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

VfL Wolfsburg show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

VfL Wolfsburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.2 shots/match▲ShotsVfL Wolfsburg · 1. FSV Mainz 0514.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	VfL Wolfsburg	1. FSV Mainz 05	Baseline
Shots	12.2 shots/match	14.1 shots/match	13.3 shots/match
Shots against	12.7 shots/match	12.1 shots/match	14.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3VfL Wolfsburg

1Draws

11. FSV Mainz 05

13 Jan 20241. FSV Mainz 05 — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga1–1

30 Apr 2023VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga3–0

5 Nov 20221. FSV Mainz 05 — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga0–3

22 Apr 2022VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga5–0

4 Dec 20211. FSV Mainz 05 — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

VfL Wolfsburg favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 5 · 7 too close

1.21 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 34/341.15 goals/match

1.65 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 34/34▲1.5 goals/match

1.17 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 34/34▲1.33 xG/match

1.33 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 34/341.34 xG/match

12.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 34/34▲14.1 shots/match

12.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 34/3412.1 shots/match

4.44 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 34/344.24 shots/match

4.47 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 34/344.38 shots/match

48.1%●Possessionseason · 34/3445.9%

4.35 corners/matchCornersseason · 34/34●5.29 corners/match

5.03 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 34/34▲4.18 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 34/3413.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 34/34▲24%

79%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 34/3474%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

VfL Wolfsburg58.3

1. FSV Mainz 0525

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

VfL Wolfsburg37

1. FSV Mainz 0538.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

VfL Wolfsburg56.5

1. FSV Mainz 0569.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

VfL Wolfsburg8.3

1. FSV Mainz 0591.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg63.9

1. FSV Mainz 0597.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg19.4

1. FSV Mainz 0569.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

VfL Wolfsburg42.4

1. FSV Mainz 0566

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

VfL Wolfsburg34 matches1. FSV Mainz 0534 matches

1.21 goals/matchGoals scored34/341.15 goals/match

1.65 goals/matchGoals allowed34/34▲1.5 goals/match

1.17 xG/matchExpected goals34/34▲1.33 xG/match

12.2 shots/matchShots34/34▲14.1 shots/match

4.44 shots/matchShots on target34/344.24 shots/match

48.1%●Possession34/3445.9%

4.35 corners/matchCorners34/34●5.29 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFouls34/3413.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

VfL Wolfsburg17 matches1. FSV Mainz 0517 matches

1.47 goals/match▲Goals scored17/170.94 goals/match

1.47 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.94 goals/match

1.39 xG/match▲Expected goals17/171.1 xG/match

13.1 shots/match▲Shots17/1712 shots/match

4.65 shots/match▲Shots on target17/173.76 shots/match

48.6%●Possession17/1745.1%

4.47 corners/match●Corners17/173.76 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.1 fouls/matchFouls17/1713.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.88 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples34 / 34home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 May 2024, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4