PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

1. FSV Mainz 05 3–0 Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

3–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FSV Mainz 05 won 3–0.

Shots
149
Shots on target
62
Expected goals
2.190.36
Possession
32%68%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FSV Mainz 05 beat Borussia Dortmund 3–0. Recorded in this match (1. FSV Mainz 05 – Borussia Dortmund): shots 14–9, shots on target 6–2, expected goals 2.19–0.36, possession 32%–68%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.09 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.09 goals/match1.44 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Borussia Dortmund have a visible away split

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12.2 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.2 shots/match14.9 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Borussia Dortmund have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.2%Possession1. FSV Mainz 05 · Borussia Dortmund● 57.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.7 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1. FSV Mainz 05Borussia DortmundBaseline
Possession46.2%57.9%47%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots9 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 14 shots, Borussia Dortmund 9 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots2 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 6 shots, Borussia Dortmund 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.19 xG0.36 xG1. FSV Mainz 05 2.19 xG, Borussia Dortmund 0.36 xG
  • Possession32%68%1. FSV Mainz 05 32%, Borussia Dortmund 68%
  • Corners4 corners2 corners1. FSV Mainz 05 4 corners, Borussia Dortmund 2 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls11 fouls1. FSV Mainz 05 14 fouls, Borussia Dortmund 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund · 5′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 10′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 49′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSepp van den Berg · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 86′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMateu Morey · Borussia Dortmund · 27′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMarius Wolf · Borussia Dortmund · 39′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarius Wolf · Borussia Dortmund · 39′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 28′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 42′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 74′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 4′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedYoussoufa Moukoko · Borussia Dortmund · 15′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLeandro Barreiro · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 33′ · 0.08 xG · on targetJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 46′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 67′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 46′ · 0.11 xG · on targetNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 7′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 23′ · 0.16 xG · goalJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 33′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedSilvan Widmer · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 8′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedBrajan Gruda · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 46′ · 0.25 xG · on targetJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 19′ · 0.40 xG · goalLeandro Barreiro · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 12′ · 0.42 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FSV Mainz 05: 14 shots, 6 on target, 2.19 xG. Borussia Dortmund: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.35 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Leandro Barreiro · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 12′Jae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 19′Jae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 23′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FSV Mainz 05 2.19 xG · Borussia Dortmund 0.35 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

01. FSV Mainz 05
2Draws
3Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–1
Borussia Dortmund — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga2–2
1. FSV Mainz 05 — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga1–2
1. FSV Mainz 05 — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga0–1
Borussia Dortmund — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FSV Mainz 05 favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Borussia Dortmund in 6 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FSV Mainz 0533 matchesBorussia Dortmund33 matches
1.09 goals/matchGoals scored33/33▲ 1.94 goals/match
1.52 goals/matchGoals allowed33/33▲ 1.3 goals/match
1.32 xG/matchExpected goals33/33▲ 1.89 xG/match
14.2 shots/matchShots33/3314.9 shots/match
4.18 shots/matchShots on target33/33▲ 5.52 shots/match
46.2%Possession33/33● 57.9%
5.36 corners/match ●Corners33/335.12 corners/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls33/339.42 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 May 2024, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FSV Mainz 05Borussia Dortmund
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-head1. FSV Mainz 05 — Borussia Dortmund
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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