PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

1. FC Heidenheim 1–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FSV Mainz 05 drew 1–1.

Shots
1510
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
0.941.4
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FSV Mainz 05 drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (1. FC Heidenheim – 1. FSV Mainz 05): shots 15–10, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 0.94–1.4, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.03 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.03 goals/match1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Heidenheim have a visible home split

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match11.6 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13.2 fouls/matchFouls1. FC Heidenheim · 1. FSV Mainz 0513.9 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric1. FC Heidenheim1. FSV Mainz 05Baseline
Fouls13.2 fouls/match13.9 fouls/match11.2 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots10 shots1. FC Heidenheim 15 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 10 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shots1. FC Heidenheim 5 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.94 xG1.4 xG1. FC Heidenheim 0.94 xG, 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.4 xG
  • Possession46%54%1. FC Heidenheim 46%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 54%
  • Corners6 corners3 corners1. FC Heidenheim 6 corners, 1. FSV Mainz 05 3 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls8 fouls1. FC Heidenheim 8 fouls, 1. FSV Mainz 05 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Kevin Sessa · 1. FC Heidenheim · 28′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTim Kleindienst · 1. FC Heidenheim · 70′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNikola Dovedan · 1. FC Heidenheim · 80′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKevin Sessa · 1. FC Heidenheim · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Pieringer · 1. FC Heidenheim · 55′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJan-Niklas Beste · 1. FC Heidenheim · 74′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKevin Sessa · 1. FC Heidenheim · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJan-Niklas Beste · 1. FC Heidenheim · 61′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJan-Niklas Beste · 1. FC Heidenheim · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 88′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 8′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEren Dinkçi · 1. FC Heidenheim · 10′ · 0.05 xG · on targetTim Kleindienst · 1. FC Heidenheim · 65′ · 0.08 xG · goalStefan Schimmer · 1. FC Heidenheim · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSepp van den Berg · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 36′ · 0.09 xG · on targetJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 76′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 18′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Mainka · 1. FC Heidenheim · 70′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedTim Kleindienst · 1. FC Heidenheim · 29′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 37′ · 0.20 xG · goalLudovic Ajorque · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 49′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedEren Dinkçi · 1. FC Heidenheim · 55′ · 0.29 xG · on targetNelson Weiper · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.46 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Heidenheim: 15 shots, 5 on target, 0.93 xG. 1. FSV Mainz 05: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.38 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Tim Kleindienst · 1. FC Heidenheim · 65′Jonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 37′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Heidenheim 0.93 xG · 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.38 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

11. FC Heidenheim
0Draws
01. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05 — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga0–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Heidenheim favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 9

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Heidenheim32 matches1. FSV Mainz 0532 matches
1.41 goals/match ▲Goals scored32/321.03 goals/match
1.66 goals/matchGoals allowed32/32▲ 1.56 goals/match
1.19 xG/matchExpected goals32/32▲ 1.29 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots32/32▲ 14.2 shots/match
3.38 shots/matchShots on target32/32▲ 4.13 shots/match
41.8%Possession32/32● 46.6%
5.44 corners/match ●Corners32/325.41 corners/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls32/3213.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 May 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC Heidenheim1. FSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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