PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

FC Bayern München 2–0 VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga

2–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 2–0.

Shots
65
Shots on target
32
Expected goals
0.290.16
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Bayern München beat VfL Wolfsburg 2–0. Recorded in this match (FC Bayern München – VfL Wolfsburg): shots 6–5, shots on target 3–2, expected goals 0.29–0.16, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Bayern München's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Bayern München's last-five shots average is below their season average.

14.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season19 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots14.2 shots/match19 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

VfL Wolfsburg show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

VfL Wolfsburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

19 shots/match ▲ShotsFC Bayern München · VfL Wolfsburg12.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC Bayern MünchenVfL WolfsburgBaseline
Shots19 shots/match12.2 shots/match13.2 shots/match
Shots against10.2 shots/match12.7 shots/match14.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

61.8% ●PossessionFC Bayern München · VfL Wolfsburg47.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFC Bayern MünchenVfL WolfsburgBaseline
Possession61.8%47.6%47%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots6 shots5 shotsFC Bayern München 6 shots, VfL Wolfsburg 5 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots2 shotsFC Bayern München 3 shots, VfL Wolfsburg 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.29 xG0.16 xGFC Bayern München 0.29 xG, VfL Wolfsburg 0.16 xG
  • Possession59%41%FC Bayern München 59%, VfL Wolfsburg 41%
  • Corners4 corners0 cornersFC Bayern München 4 corners, VfL Wolfsburg 0 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls8 foulsFC Bayern München 7 fouls, VfL Wolfsburg 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Patrick Wimmer · VfL Wolfsburg · 22′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 43′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJakub Kamiński · VfL Wolfsburg · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMathys Tel · FC Bayern München · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKim Min-jae · FC Bayern München · 43′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBryan Zaragoza · FC Bayern München · 56′ · 0.05 xG · on targetTiago Tomás · VfL Wolfsburg · 83′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 62′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLovro Zvonarek · FC Bayern München · 4′ · 0.07 xG · goalLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 13′ · 0.07 xG · goalJakub Kamiński · VfL Wolfsburg · 69′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Bayern München: 6 shots, 3 on target, 0.30 xG. VfL Wolfsburg: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.17 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.250.50′HT90′Lovro Zvonarek · FC Bayern München · 4′Leon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 13′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Bayern München 0.30 xG · VfL Wolfsburg 0.17 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4FC Bayern München
1Draws
0VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–2
VfL Wolfsburg — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga2–4
FC Bayern München — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga2–0
VfL Wolfsburg — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga2–2
FC Bayern München — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Bayern München favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Bayern München33 matchesVfL Wolfsburg33 matches
2.79 goals/match ▲Goals scored33/331.21 goals/match
1.24 goals/match ▲Goals allowed33/331.61 goals/match
2.59 xG/match ▲Expected goals33/331.18 xG/match
19 shots/match ▲Shots33/3312.2 shots/match
7.21 shots/match ▲Shots on target33/334.48 shots/match
61.8% ●Possession33/3347.6%
6.76 corners/match ●Corners33/334.45 corners/match
8.94 fouls/matchFouls33/3312.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 12 May 2024, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC Bayern MünchenVfL Wolfsburg
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headFC Bayern München — VfL Wolfsburg
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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