PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2023

Real Madrid 2–1 FC Bayern München · UEFA Champions League

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Real Madrid won 2–1.

Shots
198
Shots on target
75
Expected goals
2.950.35
Possession
57%43%

Full time

What the match recorded

Real Madrid beat FC Bayern München 2–1. Recorded in this match (Real Madrid – FC Bayern München): shots 19–8, shots on target 7–5, expected goals 2.95–0.35, possession 57%–43%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Real Madrid's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Real Madrid's last-five shots average is below their season average.

12.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season16.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots12.4 shots/match16.8 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots8 shotsReal Madrid 19 shots, FC Bayern München 8 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots5 shotsReal Madrid 7 shots, FC Bayern München 5 shots
  • Expected goals2.95 xG0.35 xGReal Madrid 2.95 xG, FC Bayern München 0.35 xG
  • Possession57%43%Real Madrid 57%, FC Bayern München 43%
  • Corners8 corners4 cornersReal Madrid 8 corners, FC Bayern München 4 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls10 foulsReal Madrid 12 fouls, FC Bayern München 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 36′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 39′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 53′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDani Carvajal · Real Madrid · 65′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNoussair Mazraoui · FC Bayern München · 44′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 17′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNacho Fernández · Real Madrid · 47′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlphonso Davies · FC Bayern München · 47′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 53′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 66′ · 0.04 xG · on targetVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 88′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNoussair Mazraoui · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 59′ · 0.05 xG · on targetVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 60′ · 0.05 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 76′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 15′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 28′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAlphonso Davies · FC Bayern München · 68′ · 0.06 xG · goalBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 13′ · 0.13 xG · on targetNacho Fernández · Real Madrid · 40′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 55′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 83′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 13′ · 0.31 xG · on targetJoselu · Real Madrid · 88′ · 0.70 xG · goalJoselu · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.81 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Real Madrid: 19 shots, 7 on target, 3.02 xG. FC Bayern München: 8 shots, 5 on target, 0.35 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Joselu · Real Madrid · 88′Joselu · Real Madrid · 90′Alphonso Davies · FC Bayern München · 68′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 3.02 xG · FC Bayern München 0.35 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Real Madrid
1Draws
0FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München — Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League2–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Real Madrid favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 5 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Real Madrid12 matchesFC Bayern München12 matches
2.17 goals/match ▲Goals scored12/121.75 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲ 1.08 goals/match
2.03 xG/match ▲Expected goals12/121.62 xG/match
16.8 shots/match ▲Shots12/1214.1 shots/match
5.67 shots/match ▲Shots on target12/124.33 shots/match
52.7%Possession12/12● 54.8%
6.17 corners/match ●Corners12/125.33 corners/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls12/1210.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 8 May 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsReal MadridFC Bayern München
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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