PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

FC St. Pauli 0–3 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

0–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FSV Mainz 05 won 0–3.

Shots
198
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
1.091.1
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FSV Mainz 05 beat FC St. Pauli 3–0. Recorded in this match (FC St. Pauli – 1. FSV Mainz 05): shots 19–8, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 1.09–1.1, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC St. Pauli show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

FC St. Pauli's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.7 shots/match ▲ShotsFC St. Pauli · 1. FSV Mainz 0510.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC St. Pauli1. FSV Mainz 05Baseline
Shots12.7 shots/match10.2 shots/match13.1 shots/match
Shots against10.2 shots/match19.8 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

FC St. Pauli have a visible home split

weak

FC St. Pauli's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.7 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.7 shots/match12.7 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

weak

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match0.67 goals/match1.7 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots8 shotsFC St. Pauli 19 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 8 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shotsFC St. Pauli 4 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.09 xG1.1 xGFC St. Pauli 1.09 xG, 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.1 xG
  • Possession55%45%FC St. Pauli 55%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 45%
  • Corners2 corners2 cornersFC St. Pauli 2 corners, 1. FSV Mainz 05 2 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls16 foulsFC St. Pauli 12 fouls, 1. FSV Mainz 05 16 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Anthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 29′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPhilipp Treu · FC St. Pauli · 49′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 57′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 78′ · 0.01 xG · on targetElias Saad · FC St. Pauli · 87′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 12′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli · 32′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJohannes Eggestein · FC St. Pauli · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPhilipp Treu · FC St. Pauli · 50′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJohannes Eggestein · FC St. Pauli · 72′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedManolis Saliakas · FC St. Pauli · 32′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 20′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJohannes Eggestein · FC St. Pauli · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 27′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJohannes Eggestein · FC St. Pauli · 24′ · 0.07 xG · on targetEric Smith · FC St. Pauli · 81′ · 0.08 xG · on targetOladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli · 30′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 84′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJohannes Eggestein · FC St. Pauli · 45′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedOladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli · 28′ · 0.14 xG · on targetOladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli · 45′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 62′ · 0.27 xG · goalJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 5′ · 0.33 xG · goalArmindo Sieb · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 16′ · 0.41 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC St. Pauli: 19 shots, 4 on target, 1.10 xG. 1. FSV Mainz 05: 8 shots, 4 on target, 1.11 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Jonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 5′Armindo Sieb · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 16′Jonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 62′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC St. Pauli 1.10 xG · 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.11 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC St. Pauli favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 4

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC St. Pauli6 matches1. FSV Mainz 056 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲ 1.83 goals/match
1.5 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/61.67 goals/match
0.97 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲ 1.22 xG/match
12.7 shots/match ▲Shots6/610.2 shots/match
3.17 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲ 4 shots/match
48.5% ●Possession6/645%
3.67 corners/matchCorners6/6● 5 corners/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls6/612 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 5 Oct 2024, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC St. Pauli1. FSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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