PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

Holstein Kiel 1–0 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Holstein Kiel won 1–0.

Shots
1117
Shots on target
65
Expected goals
1.091.23
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

Holstein Kiel beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1–0. Recorded in this match (Holstein Kiel – 1. FC Heidenheim): shots 11–17, shots on target 6–5, expected goals 1.09–1.23, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Heidenheim's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.33 goals/match1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Heidenheim show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11 shots/match ▲ShotsHolstein Kiel · 1. FC Heidenheim13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHolstein Kiel1. FC HeidenheimBaseline
Shots11 shots/match13.2 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against17.9 shots/match13 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

12.7 fouls/matchFoulsHolstein Kiel · 1. FC Heidenheim12.3 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricHolstein Kiel1. FC HeidenheimBaseline
Fouls12.7 fouls/match12.3 fouls/match10.9 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots17 shotsHolstein Kiel 11 shots, 1. FC Heidenheim 17 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots5 shotsHolstein Kiel 6 shots, 1. FC Heidenheim 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.09 xG1.23 xGHolstein Kiel 1.09 xG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.23 xG
  • Possession45%55%Holstein Kiel 45%, 1. FC Heidenheim 55%
  • Corners5 corners6 cornersHolstein Kiel 5 corners, 1. FC Heidenheim 6 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls14 foulsHolstein Kiel 16 fouls, 1. FC Heidenheim 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Marko Ivezić · Holstein Kiel · 11′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSteven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel · 19′ · 0.01 xG · on targetTymoteusz Puchacz · Holstein Kiel · 34′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Mainka · 1. FC Heidenheim · 5′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeo Scienza · 1. FC Heidenheim · 31′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSteven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel · 56′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLeo Scienza · 1. FC Heidenheim · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Breunig · 1. FC Heidenheim · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJan Schöppner · 1. FC Heidenheim · 7′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMathias Honsak · 1. FC Heidenheim · 48′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJonas Föhrenbach · 1. FC Heidenheim · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLeo Scienza · 1. FC Heidenheim · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPhil Harres · Holstein Kiel · 24′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPhil Harres · Holstein Kiel · 50′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMathias Honsak · 1. FC Heidenheim · 65′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMathias Honsak · 1. FC Heidenheim · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJonas Föhrenbach · 1. FC Heidenheim · 31′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Pieringer · 1. FC Heidenheim · 40′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Erras · Holstein Kiel · 20′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJan Schöppner · 1. FC Heidenheim · 48′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAdrian Beck · 1. FC Heidenheim · 88′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLeo Scienza · 1. FC Heidenheim · 23′ · 0.08 xG · on targetPhil Harres · Holstein Kiel · 56′ · 0.13 xG · on targetFinn Porath · Holstein Kiel · 79′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedLeo Scienza · 1. FC Heidenheim · 90′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedPhil Harres · Holstein Kiel · 72′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Erras · Holstein Kiel · 28′ · 0.33 xG · goalPaul Wanner · 1. FC Heidenheim · 23′ · 0.50 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Holstein Kiel: 11 shots, 6 on target, 1.08 xG. 1. FC Heidenheim: 17 shots, 5 on target, 1.30 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Patrick Erras · Holstein Kiel · 28′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Holstein Kiel 1.08 xG · 1. FC Heidenheim 1.30 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Holstein Kiel
1Draws
21. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Heidenheim — Holstein Kiel · 2. Bundesliga3–0
Holstein Kiel — 1. FC Heidenheim · 2. Bundesliga3–1
Holstein Kiel — 1. FC Heidenheim · 2. Bundesliga1–1
1. FC Heidenheim — Holstein Kiel · 2. Bundesliga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Holstein Kiel favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FC Heidenheim in 9 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Holstein Kiel9 matches1. FC Heidenheim9 matches
1.22 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲ 1.33 goals/match
2.56 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲ 1.33 goals/match
1.21 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲ 1.53 xG/match
11 shots/matchShots9/9▲ 13.2 shots/match
4.33 shots/matchShots on target9/94.44 shots/match
43.6% ●Possession9/943%
4.22 corners/match ●Corners9/94 corners/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls9/912.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 Nov 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHolstein Kiel1. FC Heidenheim
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-headHolstein Kiel — 1. FC Heidenheim
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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