PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

SV Werder Bremen 2–1 Holstein Kiel · Bundesliga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

SV Werder Bremen won 2–1.

Shots
1612
Shots on target
55
Expected goals
1.720.6
Possession
61%39%

Full time

What the match recorded

SV Werder Bremen beat Holstein Kiel 2–1. Recorded in this match (SV Werder Bremen – Holstein Kiel): shots 16–12, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 1.72–0.6, possession 61%–39%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

SV Werder Bremen have a visible home split

moderate

SV Werder Bremen's home-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.2 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.2 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Holstein Kiel's recent record differs from the season

weak

Holstein Kiel's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.2 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

SV Werder Bremen show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

SV Werder Bremen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.4 shots/match ▲ShotsSV Werder Bremen · Holstein Kiel11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSV Werder BremenHolstein KielBaseline
Shots12.4 shots/match11.1 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against14.2 shots/match17.7 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots12 shotsSV Werder Bremen 16 shots, Holstein Kiel 12 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots5 shotsSV Werder Bremen 5 shots, Holstein Kiel 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.72 xG0.6 xGSV Werder Bremen 1.72 xG, Holstein Kiel 0.6 xG
  • Possession61%39%SV Werder Bremen 61%, Holstein Kiel 39%
  • Corners6 corners3 cornersSV Werder Bremen 6 corners, Holstein Kiel 3 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls19 foulsSV Werder Bremen 10 fouls, Holstein Kiel 19 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Finn Porath · Holstein Kiel · 66′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMax Geschwill · Holstein Kiel · 87′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJens Stage · SV Werder Bremen · 36′ · 0.02 xG · goalMax Geschwill · Holstein Kiel · 46′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTymoteusz Puchacz · Holstein Kiel · 54′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMarko Ivezić · Holstein Kiel · 73′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSenne Lynen · SV Werder Bremen · 10′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPhil Harres · Holstein Kiel · 48′ · 0.04 xG · goalSteven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel · 51′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJustin Njinmah · SV Werder Bremen · 53′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLeonardo Bittencourt · SV Werder Bremen · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLeonardo Bittencourt · SV Werder Bremen · 80′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRomano Schmid · SV Werder Bremen · 82′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJustin Njinmah · SV Werder Bremen · 27′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJustin Njinmah · SV Werder Bremen · 29′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFiete Arp · Holstein Kiel · 87′ · 0.08 xG · on targetNicolai Remberg · Holstein Kiel · 33′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedNicolai Remberg · Holstein Kiel · 33′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLeonardo Bittencourt · SV Werder Bremen · 90′ · 0.10 xG · on targetMax Geschwill · Holstein Kiel · 46′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedRomano Schmid · SV Werder Bremen · 1′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen · 64′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedOliver Burke · SV Werder Bremen · 89′ · 0.12 xG · goalJens Stage · SV Werder Bremen · 5′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedPhil Harres · Holstein Kiel · 69′ · 0.19 xG · on targetMarvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen · 12′ · 0.26 xG · on targetRomano Schmid · SV Werder Bremen · 90′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

SV Werder Bremen: 16 shots, 5 on target, 1.69 xG. Holstein Kiel: 12 shots, 5 on target, 0.72 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Jens Stage · SV Werder Bremen · 36′Oliver Burke · SV Werder Bremen · 89′Phil Harres · Holstein Kiel · 48′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: SV Werder Bremen 1.69 xG · Holstein Kiel 0.72 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0SV Werder Bremen
0Draws
2Holstein Kiel
SV Werder Bremen — Holstein Kiel · 2. Bundesliga2–3
Holstein Kiel — SV Werder Bremen · 2. Bundesliga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: SV Werder Bremen favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Holstein Kiel in 1 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

SV Werder Bremen10 matchesHolstein Kiel10 matches
1.7 goals/match ▲Goals scored10/101.2 goals/match
2.1 goals/match ▲Goals allowed10/102.5 goals/match
1.47 xG/match ▲Expected goals10/101.15 xG/match
12.4 shots/match ▲Shots10/1011.1 shots/match
4.9 shots/match ▲Shots on target10/104.4 shots/match
50.9% ●Possession10/1043.1%
4.5 corners/match ●Corners10/104.1 corners/match
9.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 9 Nov 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSV Werder BremenHolstein Kiel
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-headSV Werder Bremen — Holstein Kiel
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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