PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

FC St. Pauli 0–1 FC Bayern München · Bundesliga

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 0–1.

Shots
313
Shots on target
06
Expected goals
0.080.8
Possession
25%75%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Bayern München beat FC St. Pauli 1–0. Recorded in this match (FC St. Pauli – FC Bayern München): shots 3–13, shots on target 0–6, expected goals 0.08–0.8, possession 25%–75%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC St. Pauli show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

FC St. Pauli's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11 shots/match ▲ShotsFC St. Pauli · FC Bayern München18.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC St. PauliFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Shots11 shots/match18.7 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against11.5 shots/match5.4 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.7%PossessionFC St. Pauli · FC Bayern München● 71.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 28.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFC St. PauliFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Possession42.7%71.2%47.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

FC St. Pauli have a visible home split

moderate

FC St. Pauli's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match11 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots3 shots13 shotsFC St. Pauli 3 shots, FC Bayern München 13 shots
  • Shots on target0 shots6 shotsFC St. Pauli 0 shots, FC Bayern München 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.08 xG0.8 xGFC St. Pauli 0.08 xG, FC Bayern München 0.8 xG
  • Possession25%75%FC St. Pauli 25%, FC Bayern München 75%
  • Corners5 corners10 cornersFC St. Pauli 5 corners, FC Bayern München 10 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls7 foulsFC St. Pauli 10 fouls, FC Bayern München 7 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Leroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 76′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMorgan Guilavogui · FC St. Pauli · 79′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 22′ · 0.02 xG · goalMorgan Guilavogui · FC St. Pauli · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 79′ · 0.02 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 14′ · 0.04 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 82′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 86′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKarol Mets · FC St. Pauli · 29′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 24′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 89′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 75′ · 0.12 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 89′ · 0.14 xG · on targetLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 41′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC St. Pauli: 3 shots, 0 on target, 0.09 xG. FC Bayern München: 13 shots, 6 on target, 0.82 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Jamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 22′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC St. Pauli 0.09 xG · FC Bayern München 0.82 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC St. Pauli favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC St. Pauli10 matchesFC Bayern München10 matches
0.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲ 3.3 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲ 0.7 goals/match
0.83 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲ 2.27 xG/match
11 shots/matchShots10/10▲ 18.7 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲ 7.9 shots/match
42.7%Possession10/10● 71.2%
3.7 corners/matchCorners10/10● 7 corners/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls10/108.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 9 Nov 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC St. PauliFC Bayern München
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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