PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

1. FSV Mainz 05 3–1 Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FSV Mainz 05 won 3–1.

Shots
132
Shots on target
91
Expected goals
2.020.86
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FSV Mainz 05 beat Borussia Dortmund 3–1. Recorded in this match (1. FSV Mainz 05 – Borussia Dortmund): shots 13–2, shots on target 9–1, expected goals 2.02–0.86, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Borussia Dortmund have a visible away split

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7.4 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots7.4 shots/match13.3 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Borussia Dortmund's recent record differs from the season

weak

Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.8 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.8 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Borussia Dortmund have recorded the higher season possession share.

47.6%Possession1. FSV Mainz 05 · Borussia Dortmund● 62%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1. FSV Mainz 05Borussia DortmundBaseline
Possession47.6%62%47.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots2 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 13 shots, Borussia Dortmund 2 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots1 shot1. FSV Mainz 05 9 shots, Borussia Dortmund 1 shot
  • Expected goals2.02 xG0.86 xG1. FSV Mainz 05 2.02 xG, Borussia Dortmund 0.86 xG
  • Possession52%48%1. FSV Mainz 05 52%, Borussia Dortmund 48%
  • Corners8 corners0 corners1. FSV Mainz 05 8 corners, Borussia Dortmund 0 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls5 fouls1. FSV Mainz 05 17 fouls, Borussia Dortmund 5 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Nadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 19′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 46′ · 0.01 xG · on targetPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 51′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 72′ · 0.07 xG · on targetNico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund · 83′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 89′ · 0.10 xG · on targetJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 43′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 18′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 29′ · 0.17 xG · on targetJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 63′ · 0.19 xG · on targetNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 89′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 45′ · 0.27 xG · goalPaul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 54′ · 0.30 xG · goalJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 36′ · 0.31 xG · goalSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 40′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FSV Mainz 05: 13 shots, 9 on target, 1.96 xG. Borussia Dortmund: 2 shots, 1 on target, 0.89 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Jae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 36′Jonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 45′Paul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 54′Serhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 40′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.96 xG · Borussia Dortmund 0.89 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

11. FSV Mainz 05
2Draws
2Borussia Dortmund
1. FSV Mainz 05 — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga3–0
Borussia Dortmund — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–1
Borussia Dortmund — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga2–2
1. FSV Mainz 05 — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga1–2
1. FSV Mainz 05 — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FSV Mainz 05 favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Borussia Dortmund in 9 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FSV Mainz 0510 matchesBorussia Dortmund10 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲ 1.8 goals/match
1.4 goals/match ▲Goals allowed10/101.8 goals/match
1.22 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲ 1.67 xG/match
12.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲ 13.3 shots/match
4.3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲ 4.9 shots/match
47.6%Possession10/10● 62%
4.9 corners/matchCorners10/10● 5.5 corners/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 9 Nov 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FSV Mainz 05Borussia Dortmund
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-head1. FSV Mainz 05 — Borussia Dortmund
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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