PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

VfL Wolfsburg 4–3 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

4–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

VfL Wolfsburg won 4–3.

Shots
1012
Shots on target
55
Expected goals
1.242.61
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfL Wolfsburg beat 1. FSV Mainz 05 4–3. Recorded in this match (VfL Wolfsburg – 1. FSV Mainz 05): shots 10–12, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 1.24–2.61, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.23 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.8 goals/match2.23 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FSV Mainz 05 have a visible away split

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.5 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.5 shots/match13.2 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

12.2 fouls/matchFoulsVfL Wolfsburg · 1. FSV Mainz 0512.6 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricVfL Wolfsburg1. FSV Mainz 05Baseline
Fouls12.2 fouls/match12.6 fouls/match10.9 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots12 shotsVfL Wolfsburg 10 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 12 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots5 shotsVfL Wolfsburg 5 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.24 xG2.61 xGVfL Wolfsburg 1.24 xG, 1. FSV Mainz 05 2.61 xG
  • Possession44%56%VfL Wolfsburg 44%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 56%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersVfL Wolfsburg 3 corners, 1. FSV Mainz 05 5 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls15 foulsVfL Wolfsburg 10 fouls, 1. FSV Mainz 05 15 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Dominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 65′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Arnold · VfL Wolfsburg · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRidle Baku · VfL Wolfsburg · 53′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMaximilian Arnold · VfL Wolfsburg · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 50′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 28′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 42′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoakim Mæhle · VfL Wolfsburg · 82′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKilian Fischer · VfL Wolfsburg · 52′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDenis Vavro · VfL Wolfsburg · 53′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 66′ · 0.07 xG · on targetDominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 47′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 79′ · 0.11 xG · on targetPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 10′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 84′ · 0.16 xG · goalJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.17 xG · goalTiago Tomás · VfL Wolfsburg · 57′ · 0.24 xG · goalJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 17′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedPaul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 66′ · 0.42 xG · goalMohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 19′ · 0.45 xG · goalPaul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 11′ · 0.49 xG · goalJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 39′ · 0.87 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfL Wolfsburg: 10 shots, 5 on target, 1.28 xG. 1. FSV Mainz 05: 12 shots, 5 on target, 2.65 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Mohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 19′Tiago Tomás · VfL Wolfsburg · 57′Jonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 84′Jonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′Paul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 11′Jonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 39′Paul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 66′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfL Wolfsburg 1.28 xG · 1. FSV Mainz 05 2.65 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3VfL Wolfsburg
1Draws
11. FSV Mainz 05
VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–3
1. FSV Mainz 05 — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga1–1
VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga3–0
1. FSV Mainz 05 — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga0–3
VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga5–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfL Wolfsburg favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 4 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfL Wolfsburg13 matches1. FSV Mainz 0513 matches
2.23 goals/match ▲Goals scored13/131.77 goals/match
1.69 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲ 1.38 goals/match
1.45 xG/matchExpected goals13/131.5 xG/match
12.2 shots/matchShots13/13▲ 13.2 shots/match
4.77 shots/matchShots on target13/134.85 shots/match
43%Possession13/13● 49.7%
4.54 corners/matchCorners13/13● 5.23 corners/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls13/1312.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Dec 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfL Wolfsburg1. FSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-headVfL Wolfsburg — 1. FSV Mainz 05
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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