Bundesliga · 2024Sun, 8 Dec 2024, 14:30 UTCFull timeHistorical match

VfL Wolfsburg

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4–3Historical match

1. FSV Mainz 05

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A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	VfL Wolfsburg	1. FSV Mainz 05
Shots	10 shots/match	12 shots/match▲
Shots on target	5 shots/match	5 shots/match
Expected goals	1.24 xG/match	2.61 xG/match▲
Possession	44%	56%●
Corners	3 corners/match	5 corners/match●
Fouls	10 fouls/match	15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

VfL Wolfsburg: 10 shots, 5 on target, 1.28 xG. 1. FSV Mainz 05: 12 shots, 5 on target, 2.65 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfL Wolfsburg 1.28 xG · 1. FSV Mainz 05 2.65 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: 1. FSV Mainz 05's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.23 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.8 goals/match	2.23 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FSV Mainz 05 have a visible away split

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.5 shots/match	13.2 shots/match	12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

12.2 fouls/matchFoulsVfL Wolfsburg · 1. FSV Mainz 0512.6 fouls/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	VfL Wolfsburg	1. FSV Mainz 05	Baseline
Fouls	12.2 fouls/match	12.6 fouls/match	10.9 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3VfL Wolfsburg

1Draws

11. FSV Mainz 05

18 May 2024VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–3

13 Jan 20241. FSV Mainz 05 — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga1–1

30 Apr 2023VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga3–0

5 Nov 20221. FSV Mainz 05 — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga0–3

22 Apr 2022VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga5–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

VfL Wolfsburg favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 4 · 6 too close

2.23 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 13/131.77 goals/match

1.69 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 13/13▲1.38 goals/match

1.45 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 13/131.5 xG/match

1.65 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 13/13▲1.35 xG/match

12.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/13▲13.2 shots/match

13.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/1313.7 shots/match

4.77 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/134.85 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/134.77 shots/match

43%Possessionseason · 13/13●49.7%

4.54 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/13●5.23 corners/match

4.77 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 13/135.31 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1312.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

23%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/13▲31%

92%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 13/1377%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

VfL Wolfsburg25

1. FSV Mainz 0547.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

VfL Wolfsburg59.3

1. FSV Mainz 0563.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

VfL Wolfsburg42.6

1. FSV Mainz 0561.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

VfL Wolfsburg75

1. FSV Mainz 0541.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg69.4

1. FSV Mainz 0580.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

VfL Wolfsburg44.4

1. FSV Mainz 0583.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

VfL Wolfsburg52.8

1. FSV Mainz 0572.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

VfL Wolfsburg13 matches1. FSV Mainz 0513 matches

2.23 goals/match▲Goals scored13/131.77 goals/match

1.69 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲1.38 goals/match

1.45 xG/matchExpected goals13/131.5 xG/match

12.2 shots/matchShots13/13▲13.2 shots/match

4.77 shots/matchShots on target13/134.85 shots/match

43%Possession13/13●49.7%

4.54 corners/matchCorners13/13●5.23 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFouls13/1312.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

VfL Wolfsburg7 matches1. FSV Mainz 056 matches

1.86 goals/matchGoals scored7/6▲2.5 goals/match

2.14 goals/matchGoals allowed7/6▲1.5 goals/match

1.34 xG/matchExpected goals7/6▲1.66 xG/match

12.1 shots/match▲Shots7/610.5 shots/match

4.29 shots/matchShots on target7/6▲4.67 shots/match

47.3%●Possession7/645.8%

4.29 corners/match●Corners7/63.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.1 fouls/matchFouls7/612.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples13 / 13home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Dec 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4