PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

1. FSV Mainz 05 2–1 FC Bayern München · Bundesliga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FSV Mainz 05 won 2–1.

Shots
813
Shots on target
41
Expected goals
1.061.39
Possession
31%69%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FSV Mainz 05 beat FC Bayern München 2–1. Recorded in this match (1. FSV Mainz 05 – FC Bayern München): shots 8–13, shots on target 4–1, expected goals 1.06–1.39, possession 31%–69%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.79 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match1.79 goals/match1.59 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FSV Mainz 05 show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

1. FSV Mainz 05's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.8 shots/match ▲Shots1. FSV Mainz 05 · FC Bayern München19.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FSV Mainz 05FC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match19.1 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against13.6 shots/match5.21 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

48.4%Possession1. FSV Mainz 05 · FC Bayern München● 72.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 23.9 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1. FSV Mainz 05FC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Possession48.4%72.2%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots13 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 8 shots, FC Bayern München 13 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots1 shot1. FSV Mainz 05 4 shots, FC Bayern München 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.06 xG1.39 xG1. FSV Mainz 05 1.06 xG, FC Bayern München 1.39 xG
  • Possession31%69%1. FSV Mainz 05 31%, FC Bayern München 69%
  • Corners3 corners2 corners1. FSV Mainz 05 3 corners, FC Bayern München 2 corners
  • Fouls21 fouls12 fouls1. FSV Mainz 05 21 fouls, FC Bayern München 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Leroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 40′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 5′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedArmindo Sieb · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 41′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 65′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMathys Tel · FC Bayern München · 72′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKaishu Sano · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 82′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRaphaël Guerreiro · FC Bayern München · 40′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedArmindo Sieb · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 68′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 13′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 74′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMathys Tel · FC Bayern München · 80′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 12′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 72′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 6′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 64′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 29′ · 0.20 xG · on targetJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 60′ · 0.31 xG · goalJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 41′ · 0.36 xG · goalLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 87′ · 0.54 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FSV Mainz 05: 8 shots, 4 on target, 1.06 xG. FC Bayern München: 13 shots, 1 on target, 1.39 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Jae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 41′Jae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 60′Leroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 87′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.06 xG · FC Bayern München 1.39 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

21. FSV Mainz 05
0Draws
3FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga8–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–3
1. FSV Mainz 05 — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga3–1
FC Bayern München — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga6–2
1. FSV Mainz 05 — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FSV Mainz 05 favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FSV Mainz 0514 matchesFC Bayern München14 matches
1.79 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲ 3 goals/match
1.36 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲ 0.86 goals/match
1.47 xG/matchExpected goals14/14▲ 2.28 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots14/14▲ 19.1 shots/match
4.79 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲ 7.79 shots/match
48.4%Possession14/14● 72.2%
5.07 corners/matchCorners14/14● 6.5 corners/match
13.2 fouls/matchFouls14/148.43 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Dec 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FSV Mainz 05FC Bayern München
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-head1. FSV Mainz 05 — FC Bayern München
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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