PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

Borussia M'gladbach 4–1 Holstein Kiel · Bundesliga

4–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Borussia M'gladbach won 4–1.

Shots
1712
Shots on target
63
Expected goals
2.390.57
Possession
57%43%

Full time

What the match recorded

Borussia M'gladbach beat Holstein Kiel 4–1. Recorded in this match (Borussia M'gladbach – Holstein Kiel): shots 17–12, shots on target 6–3, expected goals 2.39–0.57, possession 57%–43%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Holstein Kiel's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Holstein Kiel's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1 goal/match1.59 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Borussia M'gladbach show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Borussia M'gladbach's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.5 shots/match ▲ShotsBorussia M'gladbach · Holstein Kiel11.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBorussia M'gladbachHolstein KielBaseline
Shots14.5 shots/match11.2 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against15.9 shots/match16.6 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

12.1 fouls/matchFoulsBorussia M'gladbach · Holstein Kiel12.9 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricBorussia M'gladbachHolstein KielBaseline
Fouls12.1 fouls/match12.9 fouls/match10.9 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots12 shotsBorussia M'gladbach 17 shots, Holstein Kiel 12 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots3 shotsBorussia M'gladbach 6 shots, Holstein Kiel 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.39 xG0.57 xGBorussia M'gladbach 2.39 xG, Holstein Kiel 0.57 xG
  • Possession57%43%Borussia M'gladbach 57%, Holstein Kiel 43%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersBorussia M'gladbach 5 corners, Holstein Kiel 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls14 foulsBorussia M'gladbach 10 fouls, Holstein Kiel 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Nicolai Remberg · Holstein Kiel · 25′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLukas Ullrich · Borussia M'gladbach · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLasse Rosenboom · Holstein Kiel · 65′ · 0.01 xG · on targetArmin Gigović · Holstein Kiel · 72′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMax Geschwill · Holstein Kiel · 81′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedArmin Gigović · Holstein Kiel · 30′ · 0.02 xG · goalShuto Machino · Holstein Kiel · 75′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPhilipp Sander · Borussia M'gladbach · 78′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTim Kleindienst · Borussia M'gladbach · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFinn Porath · Holstein Kiel · 74′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFranck Honorat · Borussia M'gladbach · 23′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedShuto Machino · Holstein Kiel · 84′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRobin Hack · Borussia M'gladbach · 21′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTim Kleindienst · Borussia M'gladbach · 41′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMagnus Knudsen · Holstein Kiel · 84′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAlassane Pléa · Borussia M'gladbach · 43′ · 0.06 xG · goalSteven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel · 72′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFranck Honorat · Borussia M'gladbach · 64′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Bernhardsson · Holstein Kiel · 85′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRocco Reitz · Borussia M'gladbach · 78′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAlassane Pléa · Borussia M'gladbach · 79′ · 0.16 xG · goalTim Kleindienst · Borussia M'gladbach · 32′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedNico Elvedi · Borussia M'gladbach · 88′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedLukas Ullrich · Borussia M'gladbach · 52′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Bernhardsson · Holstein Kiel · 55′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedRobin Hack · Borussia M'gladbach · 26′ · 0.23 xG · goalTim Kleindienst · Borussia M'gladbach · 19′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedFranck Honorat · Borussia M'gladbach · 83′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedTim Kleindienst · Borussia M'gladbach · 1′ · 0.40 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Borussia M'gladbach: 17 shots, 6 on target, 2.37 xG. Holstein Kiel: 12 shots, 3 on target, 0.55 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Tim Kleindienst · Borussia M'gladbach · 1′Robin Hack · Borussia M'gladbach · 26′Alassane Pléa · Borussia M'gladbach · 43′Alassane Pléa · Borussia M'gladbach · 79′Armin Gigović · Holstein Kiel · 30′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Borussia M'gladbach 2.37 xG · Holstein Kiel 0.55 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Borussia M'gladbach favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Holstein Kiel in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Borussia M'gladbach14 matchesHolstein Kiel14 matches
1.64 goals/match ▲Goals scored14/141 goal/match
1.36 goals/match ▲Goals allowed14/142.64 goals/match
1.74 xG/match ▲Expected goals14/141.06 xG/match
14.5 shots/match ▲Shots14/1411.2 shots/match
5.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target14/144.07 shots/match
52.6% ●Possession14/1444.3%
4.86 corners/match ●Corners14/143.93 corners/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls14/1412.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Dec 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBorussia M'gladbachHolstein Kiel
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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