PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

1. FC Heidenheim 0–2 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

0–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FSV Mainz 05 won 0–2.

Shots
126
Shots on target
35
Expected goals
0.762.15
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FSV Mainz 05 beat 1. FC Heidenheim 2–0. Recorded in this match (1. FC Heidenheim – 1. FSV Mainz 05): shots 12–6, shots on target 3–5, expected goals 0.76–2.15, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Heidenheim's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.14 goals/match1.59 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FSV Mainz 05 have a visible away split

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.73 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.73 shots/match11.5 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots6 shots1. FC Heidenheim 12 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 6 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots5 shots1. FC Heidenheim 3 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.76 xG2.15 xG1. FC Heidenheim 0.76 xG, 1. FSV Mainz 05 2.15 xG
  • Possession56%44%1. FC Heidenheim 56%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 44%
  • Corners8 corners4 corners1. FC Heidenheim 8 corners, 1. FSV Mainz 05 4 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls16 fouls1. FC Heidenheim 9 fouls, 1. FSV Mainz 05 16 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Omar Haktab Traore · 1. FC Heidenheim · 12′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMathias Honsak · 1. FC Heidenheim · 52′ · 0.01 xG · on targetTim Siersleben · 1. FC Heidenheim · 12′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNelson Weiper · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 54′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMathias Honsak · 1. FC Heidenheim · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFrans Krätzig · 1. FC Heidenheim · 26′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJan Schöppner · 1. FC Heidenheim · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMathias Honsak · 1. FC Heidenheim · 63′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMathias Honsak · 1. FC Heidenheim · 84′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPaul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 38′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPatrick Mainka · 1. FC Heidenheim · 26′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMarvin Pieringer · 1. FC Heidenheim · 74′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 73′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 71′ · 0.11 xG · on targetMathias Honsak · 1. FC Heidenheim · 25′ · 0.12 xG · on targetMathias Honsak · 1. FC Heidenheim · 18′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 28′ · 0.89 xG · goalNelson Weiper · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 49′ · 0.95 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Heidenheim: 12 shots, 3 on target, 0.64 xG. 1. FSV Mainz 05: 6 shots, 5 on target, 2.11 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Jonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 28′Nelson Weiper · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 49′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Heidenheim 0.64 xG · 1. FSV Mainz 05 2.11 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

21. FC Heidenheim
1Draws
01. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05 — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga0–2
1. FC Heidenheim — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Heidenheim favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Heidenheim22 matches1. FSV Mainz 0522 matches
1.14 goals/matchGoals scored22/22▲ 1.59 goals/match
2.05 goals/matchGoals allowed22/22▲ 1.09 goals/match
1.23 xG/matchExpected goals22/22▲ 1.46 xG/match
11.5 shots/matchShots22/2211.5 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target22/22▲ 4.41 shots/match
43.8%Possession22/22● 49.2%
3.95 corners/matchCorners22/22● 4.82 corners/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls22/2212.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 16 Feb 2025, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC Heidenheim1. FSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-head1. FC Heidenheim — 1. FSV Mainz 05
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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