PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

1. FSV Mainz 05 2–0 FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga

2–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FSV Mainz 05 won 2–0.

Shots
1012
Shots on target
50
Expected goals
1.340.85
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FSV Mainz 05 beat FC St. Pauli 2–0. Recorded in this match (1. FSV Mainz 05 – FC St. Pauli): shots 10–12, shots on target 5–0, expected goals 1.34–0.85, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.61 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.61 goals/match1.52 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FSV Mainz 05 show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

1. FSV Mainz 05's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.4 shots/match ▲Shots1. FSV Mainz 05 · FC St. Pauli11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FSV Mainz 05FC St. PauliBaseline
Shots11.4 shots/match11 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against14 shots/match11 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots12 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 10 shots, FC St. Pauli 12 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots0 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 5 shots, FC St. Pauli 0 shots
  • Expected goals1.34 xG0.85 xG1. FSV Mainz 05 1.34 xG, FC St. Pauli 0.85 xG
  • Possession53%47%1. FSV Mainz 05 53%, FC St. Pauli 47%
  • Corners6 corners5 corners1. FSV Mainz 05 6 corners, FC St. Pauli 5 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls10 fouls1. FSV Mainz 05 9 fouls, FC St. Pauli 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Nadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 67′ · 0.01 xG · on targetAndreas Hanche Olsen · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 77′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedElias Saad · FC St. Pauli · 19′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNoah Weißhaupt · FC St. Pauli · 26′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNoah Weißhaupt · FC St. Pauli · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdam Dźwigała · FC St. Pauli · 73′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 60′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedArmindo Sieb · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 79′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNelson Weiper · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 18′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPhilipp Treu · FC St. Pauli · 43′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNoah Weißhaupt · FC St. Pauli · 6′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNoah Weißhaupt · FC St. Pauli · 32′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 37′ · 0.06 xG · on targetHauke Wahl · FC St. Pauli · 51′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 77′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 53′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 78′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedEric Smith · FC St. Pauli · 2′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedJohannes Eggestein · FC St. Pauli · 82′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 67′ · 0.35 xG · goalPaul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.62 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FSV Mainz 05: 10 shots, 5 on target, 1.25 xG. FC St. Pauli: 12 shots, 0 on target, 0.87 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Jae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 67′Paul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.25 xG · FC St. Pauli 0.87 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

11. FSV Mainz 05
0Draws
0FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga0–3

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FSV Mainz 05 favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 3 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FSV Mainz 0523 matchesFC St. Pauli23 matches
1.61 goals/match ▲Goals scored23/230.78 goals/match
1.04 goals/match ▲Goals allowed23/231.17 goals/match
1.46 xG/match ▲Expected goals23/231 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots23/2311 shots/match
4.43 shots/match ▲Shots on target23/233 shots/match
49.3% ●Possession23/2344.1%
4.87 corners/match ●Corners23/233.78 corners/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls23/2310.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 22 Feb 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FSV Mainz 05FC St. Pauli
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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